The School of Odds
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Saint Lucia Kings v Antigua & Barbuda Falcons

Kickoff: 2026-08-14 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Saint Lucia Kings (Local)

Prediction 53.18%1.88fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -1.76%
Kelly -3.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.11%53.18%53.49%54.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.791.801.8257.80%55.89%55.56%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Antigua & Barbuda Falcons (Visit)

Prediction 46.82%2.14fair odd
EV -1.68%
Edge -0.801%
Kelly -1.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.91%46.82%46.51%47.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.022.002.1050.51%49.55%50.00%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Saint Lucia Kings (Local): 53.18%; Antigua & Barbuda Falcons (Visit): 46.82%. For Antigua & Barbuda Falcons (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.14. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.10, with an expected value of -1.68%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -3.21%E -1.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -7.30%E -3.69%K -7.45%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-14 22:55
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -4.27%E -2.37%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -1.68%E -0.801%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-14 22:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -4.27%E -2.37%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -1.68%E -0.801%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-14 22:49
Grosvenor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.27%E -2.37%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-13 12:39
Casumo🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.27%E -2.37%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-13 12:39
TABtouch🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.27%E -2.37%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-13 12:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.27%E -2.37%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-13 12:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.27%E -2.37%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-13 12:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.27%E -2.37%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-13 12:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.27%E -2.37%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-13 12:40
Unibet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.27%E -2.37%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-13 12:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.27%E -2.37%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.36%E -3.18%K -6.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-13 12:40
Betway🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.93%E -3.96%K -9.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.02%E -1.96%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-14 22:47
SportsBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.46%E -4.29%K -10.08%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -4.02%E -1.96%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-14 22:49
Marathon Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.49%EV -7.99%E -4.62%K -10.95%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.51%EV -6.83%E -3.43%K -6.90%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-14 22:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.84I 54.35%NM 53.54%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.46%1.5%2026-08-14 22:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.84I 54.35%NM 53.54%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.46%1.5%2026-08-14 22:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.84I 54.35%NM 53.54%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.46%1.5%2026-08-14 22:55