The School of Odds
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Guyana Amazon Warriors v Antigua & Barbuda Falcons

Kickoff: 2026-09-18 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Guyana Amazon Warriors (Local)

Prediction 48.49%2.06fair odd
EV -3.03%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -3.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.37%48.38%48.49%49.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.891.982.002.0052.91%50.39%50.00%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Antigua & Barbuda Falcons (Visit)

Prediction 51.51%1.94fair odd
EV -4.70%
Edge -2.54%
Kelly -5.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.80%51.62%51.51%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.811.811.8555.56%55.17%55.25%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Guyana Amazon Warriors (Local): 48.49%; Antigua & Barbuda Falcons (Visit): 51.51%. For Guyana Amazon Warriors (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.06. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.00, with an expected value of -3.03%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -3.03%E -1.51%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -4.70%E -2.54%K -5.53%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-17 23:50
Unibet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -3.03%E -1.51%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -6.76%E -3.73%K -8.34%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-17 23:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -3.03%E -1.51%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -6.76%E -3.73%K -8.34%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-17 23:50
Grosvenor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -3.03%E -1.51%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -6.76%E -3.73%K -8.34%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-17 23:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -3.03%E -1.51%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -6.76%E -3.73%K -8.34%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-17 23:50
Casumo🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -3.03%E -1.51%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -6.76%E -3.73%K -8.34%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-17 23:50
TABtouch🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -3.03%E -1.51%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -6.76%E -3.73%K -8.34%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-17 23:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -3.03%E -1.51%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -6.76%E -3.73%K -8.34%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-17 23:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -3.03%E -1.51%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -6.76%E -3.73%K -8.34%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-17 23:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -3.03%E -1.51%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -6.76%E -3.73%K -8.34%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-17 23:50
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.03%E -1.51%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.27%E -4.04%K -9.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-17 23:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.03%E -1.51%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.27%E -4.04%K -9.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-17 23:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.03%E -1.51%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.27%E -4.04%K -9.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-17 23:55
SportsBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.01%EV -4.97%E -2.53%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.99%EV -6.76%E -3.73%K -8.34%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-17 23:50
Pinnacle🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.20%EV -7.88%E -4.15%K -8.75%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 50.80%EV -5.21%E -2.83%K -6.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-17 23:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.92%EV -8.36%E -4.42%K -9.40%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.08%EV -6.76%E -3.73%K -8.34%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-17 23:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 47.13%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.87%0.1%2026-09-17 23:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.50%1.90I 52.63%NM 52.50%0.3%2026-09-17 23:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.87%1.91I 52.36%NM 52.13%0.4%2026-09-17 23:55