The School of Odds
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Guyana Amazon Warriors v Antigua & Barbuda Falcons

Kickoff: 2026-09-08 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Guyana Amazon Warriors (Local)

Prediction 66.42%1.51fair odd
EV -4.36%
Edge -3.02%
Kelly -9.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.45%66.78%66.42%68.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.421.431.4472.46%70.48%69.93%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Antigua & Barbuda Falcons (Visit)

Prediction 33.58%2.98fair odd
EV +2.42%
Edge +0.793%
Kelly +1.18%
Growth +0.029%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.15%33.22%33.58%34.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.692.832.803.0537.17%35.37%35.71%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Guyana Amazon Warriors (Local): 66.42%; Antigua & Barbuda Falcons (Visit): 33.58%. For Antigua & Barbuda Falcons (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.98. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.42%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -8.34%E -6.04%K -21.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +2.42%E +0.793%K +1.18%G +0.029%5.3%2026-09-08 22:54
SportsBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.82%EV -7.68%E -5.52%K -19.68%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.18%EV -1.61%E -0.550%K -0.834%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-08 22:45
Betway🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -4.36%E -3.02%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -2.62%E -0.903%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-08 22:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -7.01%E -5.01%K -17.53%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -3.62%E -1.26%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-08 22:44
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -7.01%E -5.01%K -17.53%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -3.62%E -1.26%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-08 22:45
TABtouch🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.02%E -3.51%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.98%E -2.13%K -3.32%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-08 22:45
Unibet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.02%E -3.51%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.98%E -2.13%K -3.32%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-08 22:44
Virgin Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.02%E -3.51%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.98%E -2.13%K -3.32%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-08 22:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.02%E -3.51%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.98%E -2.13%K -3.32%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-08 22:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.02%E -3.51%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.98%E -2.13%K -3.32%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-08 22:44
Grosvenor🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.02%E -3.51%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.98%E -2.13%K -3.32%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-08 22:44
Unibet (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.02%E -3.51%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.98%E -2.13%K -3.32%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-08 22:44
Casumo🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.02%E -3.51%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.98%E -2.13%K -3.32%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-08 22:44
LiveScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.02%E -3.51%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.98%E -2.13%K -3.32%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-08 22:44
Marathon Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.02%EV -7.01%E -5.01%K -17.53%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.98%EV -8.66%E -3.18%K -5.04%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-08 22:44
Pinnacle🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.45%EV -5.68%E -4.00%K -13.53%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 34.55%EV -9.67%E -3.59%K -5.72%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-08 22:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%0.7%2026-09-08 22:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%0.7%2026-09-08 22:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%0.7%2026-09-08 22:55