The School of Odds
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Antigua & Barbuda Falcons v Trinbago Knight Riders

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 23:04 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Antigua & Barbuda Falcons (Local)

Prediction 44.02%2.27fair odd
EV -0.076%
Edge -0.033%
Kelly -0.060%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.04%43.56%44.02%45.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.162.162.2747.62%46.22%46.30%44.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Trinbago Knight Riders (Visit)

Prediction 55.98%1.79fair odd
EV -3.15%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -4.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.83%56.44%55.98%58.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.691.701.7363.29%59.04%58.82%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Antigua & Barbuda Falcons (Local): 44.02%; Trinbago Knight Riders (Visit): 55.98%. For Antigua & Barbuda Falcons (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.272. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.270, with an expected value of -0.076%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.04%EV -0.076%E -0.033%K -0.060%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.96%EV -11.55%E -7.31%K -19.91%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-22 22:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.02%EV -3.16%E -1.44%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.98%EV -3.15%E -1.82%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-22 23:00
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.02%EV -3.16%E -1.44%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.98%EV -3.15%E -1.82%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-22 23:00
Unibet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.92%E -2.28%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.83%E -2.84%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 23:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.92%E -2.28%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.83%E -2.84%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 23:00
Casumo🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.92%E -2.28%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.83%E -2.84%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 23:00
Grosvenor🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.92%E -2.28%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.83%E -2.84%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 23:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.92%E -2.28%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.83%E -2.84%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 23:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.92%E -2.28%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.83%E -2.84%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 23:00
TABtouch🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.92%E -2.28%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.83%E -2.84%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 23:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.92%E -2.28%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.83%E -2.84%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 23:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.92%E -2.28%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.83%E -2.84%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 23:00
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.36%E -2.49%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.83%E -2.84%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-22 22:59
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.36%E -2.49%K -4.66%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.95%E -3.54%K -8.75%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-22 23:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 43.88%EV -7.12%E -3.37%K -6.41%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.12%EV -7.63%E -4.63%K -11.74%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-22 22:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.56%E -3.60%K -6.87%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.15%E -1.82%K -4.32%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-22 22:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44%0.7%2026-08-22 23:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44%0.7%2026-08-22 23:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44%0.7%2026-08-22 23:00