The School of Odds
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Antigua & Barbuda Falcons v St Kitts & Nevis Patriots

Kickoff: 2026-08-20 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Antigua & Barbuda Falcons (Local)

Prediction 49.98%2.00fair odd
EV -3.53%
Edge -1.83%
Kelly -3.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.40%50.08%49.98%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.841.831.9355.56%54.42%54.64%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St Kitts & Nevis Patriots (Visit)

Prediction 50.02%2.00fair odd
EV +0.036%
Edge +0.018%
Kelly +0.036%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.37%49.92%50.02%51.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.951.962.0055.56%51.30%51.02%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Antigua & Barbuda Falcons (Local): 49.98%; St Kitts & Nevis Patriots (Visit): 50.02%. For St Kitts & Nevis Patriots (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.999. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.000, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.036%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Betway🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -7.53%E -4.07%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV +0.036%E +0.018%K +0.036%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-20 22:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -10.03%E -5.57%K -12.54%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV +0.036%E +0.018%K +0.036%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-20 22:55
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -10.03%E -5.57%K -12.54%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV +0.036%E +0.018%K +0.036%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-20 22:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -8.53%E -4.66%K -10.28%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -1.46%E -0.744%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-20 22:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -8.53%E -4.66%K -10.28%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -1.46%E -0.744%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-20 22:50
Unibet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -8.53%E -4.66%K -10.28%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -1.46%E -0.744%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-20 22:49
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -10.03%E -5.57%K -12.54%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -1.46%E -0.744%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-20 22:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -8.53%E -4.66%K -10.28%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -1.97%E -1.00%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-20 22:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -8.53%E -4.66%K -10.28%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -1.97%E -1.00%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-20 22:49
Casumo🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -8.53%E -4.66%K -10.28%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -1.97%E -1.00%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-20 22:49
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -8.53%E -4.66%K -10.28%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -1.97%E -1.00%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-20 22:49
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -8.53%E -4.66%K -10.28%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -1.97%E -1.00%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-20 22:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -7.53%E -4.07%K -8.86%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -2.47%E -1.26%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-20 22:45
Grosvenor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -8.53%E -4.66%K -10.28%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -2.47%E -1.26%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-20 22:55
Pinnacle🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%EV -3.53%E -1.83%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.60%EV -9.47%E -5.23%K -11.69%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-20 21:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -5.03%E -2.65%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -9.97%E -5.54%K -12.46%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-20 22:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.