The School of Odds
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Antigua & Barbuda Falcons v Saint Lucia Kings

Kickoff: 2026-08-09 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Antigua & Barbuda Falcons (Local)

Prediction 66.14%1.51fair odd
EV +7.15%
Edge +4.41%
Kelly +11.53%
Growth +0.825%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.67%66.14%66.43%67.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.431.421.6271.43%69.93%70.42%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Saint Lucia Kings (Visit)

Prediction 33.86%2.95fair odd
EV -0.122%
Edge -0.041%
Kelly -0.062%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.18%33.86%33.57%41.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.832.882.9543.48%35.37%34.72%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Antigua & Barbuda Falcons (Local): 66.14%; Saint Lucia Kings (Visit): 33.86%. For Antigua & Barbuda Falcons (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.51. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.62, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.15%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV +7.15%E +4.41%K +11.53%G +0.825%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -22.13%E -9.62%K -17.02%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 20:40
Betway🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.75%E -3.30%K -10.80%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.51%E -1.23%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-09 22:49
Marathon Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.18%EV -4.75%E -3.30%K -10.80%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.82%EV -12.65%E -4.90%K -8.01%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-09 22:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -6.08%E -4.28%K -14.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -2.49%E -0.865%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-09 22:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -6.08%E -4.28%K -14.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -2.49%E -0.865%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-09 22:45
Casumo🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -6.08%E -4.28%K -14.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -2.49%E -0.865%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-09 22:45
Unibet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -6.08%E -4.28%K -14.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -2.49%E -0.865%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-09 22:45
TABtouch🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -6.08%E -4.28%K -14.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -2.49%E -0.865%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-09 22:45
Grosvenor🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -6.08%E -4.28%K -14.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -2.49%E -0.865%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-09 22:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -6.08%E -4.28%K -14.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -2.49%E -0.865%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-09 22:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -6.08%E -4.28%K -14.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -2.49%E -0.865%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-09 22:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -6.08%E -4.28%K -14.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -2.49%E -0.865%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-09 22:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -7.40%E -5.29%K -18.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -0.122%E -0.041%K -0.062%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 22:55
SportsBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.40%E -5.29%K -18.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -1.81%E -0.626%K -0.955%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-09 22:49
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -7.40%E -5.29%K -18.50%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -2.83%E -0.986%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 22:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -7.40%E -5.29%K -18.50%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -2.83%E -0.986%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 22:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%0.7%2026-08-09 22:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%0.7%2026-08-09 22:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%0.7%2026-08-09 22:55