The School of Odds
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Zak Miller v Gully Powar

Kickoff: 2026-11-07 19:13 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Zak Miller (Local)

Prediction 44.99%2.22fair odd
EV +3.47%
Edge +1.51%
Kelly +2.67%
Growth +0.093%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.18%44.97%45.48%48.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.072.052.3052.36%48.35%48.78%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gully Powar (Visit)

Prediction 55.01%1.82fair odd
EV +2.88%
Edge +1.54%
Kelly +3.30%
Growth +0.095%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.30%55.03%54.52%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.711.711.8762.11%58.37%58.31%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Zak Miller (Local): 44.99%; Gully Powar (Visit): 55.01%. For Zak Miller (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.22. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.47%.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.70%EV -11.38%E -5.77%K -11.73%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.30%EV +2.88%E +1.54%K +3.30%G +0.095%4.2%2026-11-07 18:30
BetUS🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.10%EV -14.08%E -7.37%K -15.47%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.90%EV -2.63%E -1.48%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-07 17:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -10.03%E -5.01%K -10.03%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -4.83%E -2.79%K -6.61%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-07 19:09
picklebet_au🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -7.78%E -3.79%K -7.41%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -5.38%E -3.13%K -7.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-07 19:10
Betsson🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -10.03%E -5.01%K -10.03%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -5.38%E -3.13%K -7.47%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-07 19:00
NordicBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -10.03%E -5.01%K -10.03%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -5.38%E -3.13%K -7.47%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-07 19:00
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -7.78%E -3.79%K -7.41%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -5.93%E -3.47%K -8.35%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-07 17:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -5.53%E -2.63%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -7.03%E -4.16%K -10.18%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-07 18:25
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -5.53%E -2.63%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -7.03%E -4.16%K -10.18%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-07 18:55
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.03%E -0.468%K -0.858%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.13%E -4.87%K -12.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-07 13:20
FanDuel🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.68%EV -3.73%E -1.74%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.32%EV -8.68%E -5.23%K -13.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-07 16:00
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV +3.47%E +1.51%K +2.67%G +0.093%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -11.43%E -7.10%K -18.73%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-07 01:48
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 45.98%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.80%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.23%3.6%2026-11-07 19:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 45.98%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.80%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.23%3.6%2026-11-07 19:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 45.98%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.80%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.23%3.6%2026-11-07 19:10
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.68%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.47%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.85%6.9%2026-11-07 16:00
1xBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.19%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.99%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.81%7.7%2026-11-07 18:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.82%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.11%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.08%8.7%2026-11-07 17:45
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.82%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.11%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.08%8.7%2026-11-07 17:45
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.81%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.07%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.12%8.9%2026-11-07 15:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.81%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.07%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.12%8.9%2026-11-07 18:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.43%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.89%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.68%10.1%2026-11-07 18:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.43%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.89%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.68%10.1%2026-11-07 18:25
TABtouch🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.43%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.89%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.68%10.1%2026-11-07 18:25
Grosvenor🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.43%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.89%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.68%10.1%2026-11-07 18:25
Unibet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.43%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.89%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.68%10.1%2026-11-07 18:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.43%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.89%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.68%10.1%2026-11-07 18:25
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.97%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.10%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.93%11.0%2026-11-07 18:40