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Xavier Fletcher v Bongani Sibanda
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Xavier Fletcher (Local)
assuming max odds 1.29
Bongani Sibanda (Visit)
assuming max odds 3.70
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Xavier Fletcher (Local): 73.07%; Bongani Sibanda (Visit): 26.93%. For Bongani Sibanda (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.71. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.70, with an expected value of -0.355%; they did not produce positive expected value.
7 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.74%E -4.45%K -19.80%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-22 21:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -6.47%E -5.06%K -23.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -0.355%E -0.096%K -0.131%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 06:24 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.65%EV -7.20%E -5.67%K -26.68%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -4.39%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-23 03:09 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (7)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.55% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.34% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.11% | 9.2% | 2026-04-22 13:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.89% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.04% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.07% | 9.8% | 2026-04-22 20:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.55% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.28% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.17% | 11.3% | 2026-04-23 06:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.55% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.28% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.17% | 11.3% | 2026-04-23 06:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.55% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.28% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.17% | 11.3% | 2026-04-23 06:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.64% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 5.97% | 11.7% | 2026-04-22 16:03 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.64% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 5.97% | 11.7% | 2026-04-22 15:39 |