The School of Odds
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William Foster III v Joshafat Ortiz

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

William Foster III (Local)

Prediction 86.17%1.16fair odd
EV -1.76%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -12.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
82.54%85.57%86.17%87.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.081.111.101.1492.59%90.25%90.91%87.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Joshafat Ortiz (Visit)

Prediction 13.83%7.23fair odd
EV +3.71%
Edge +0.495%
Kelly +0.571%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.59%14.43%13.83%17.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.396.406.207.5018.55%15.63%16.13%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: William Foster III (Local): 86.17%; Joshafat Ortiz (Visit): 13.83%. For Joshafat Ortiz (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.23. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.71%.

4 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -6.93%E -6.42%K -86.68%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV +3.71%E +0.495%K +0.571%G +0.021%5.9%2026-04-09 22:20
theScore Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -6.93%E -6.42%K -86.68%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV +3.71%E +0.495%K +0.571%G +0.021%5.9%2026-04-10 17:19
FanDuel🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.93%EV -5.21%E -4.74%K -52.11%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.07%EV -14.27%E -2.30%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-08 16:09
LowVig.ag🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.54%EV -1.76%E -1.55%K -12.60%G +0.000%5.39I 18.55%NM 17.46%EV -25.47%E -4.72%K -5.80%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-10 23:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.54%EV -1.76%E -1.55%K -12.60%G +0.000%5.39I 18.55%NM 17.46%EV -25.47%E -4.72%K -5.80%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-10 23:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (4)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
SportsBet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.89%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.71%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.41%8.1%2026-04-08 09:09
1xBet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 84.43%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.78%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.79%8.7%2026-04-10 21:55
Paddy Power🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 81.86%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.85%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.29%11.1%2026-04-08 09:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 81.86%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.85%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.29%11.1%2026-04-08 09:35