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Tiah Mai Ayton v Ellie Hellewell

2026-08-22 18:55 UTC — Boxing

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tiah Mai Ayton (Local)

Prediction 87.76%1.14fair odd
EV -6.97%
Edge -6.58%
Kelly -116.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
87.76%87.76%87.76%87.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.061.061.0694.34%94.34%94.34%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ellie Hellewell (Visit)

Prediction 12.24%8.17fair odd
EV -6.97%
Edge -0.918%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.24%12.24%12.24%12.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.607.607.607.6013.16%13.16%13.16%13.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Tiah Mai Ayton (Local): 87.76%; Ellie Hellewell (Visit): 12.24%. For Tiah Mai Ayton (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.14. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.06, with an expected value of -6.97%; they do not produce positive expected value.

4 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.76%EV -6.97%E -6.58%K -116.24%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.24%EV -6.97%E -0.918%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-16 04:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (4)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
SportsBet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.33%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.08%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.59%7.2%2026-08-16 04:30
Paddy Power🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.09%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.61%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.30%10.9%2026-08-16 04:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.09%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.61%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.30%10.9%2026-08-16 04:30
1xBet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.09%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.61%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.30%10.9%2026-08-16 04:30

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