The School of Odds

Tiago Muxanga v Tunde Segun Adeyemi

2026-07-12 16:00 — Boxing

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

9 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Option 1: Tiago Muxanga (Local)

1.0595.24%Min
1.0793.38%Mean
1.0892.59%Median
1.0892.59%Max
86.63%1.154Min
89.96%1.112Max
87.37%1.145Mean
87.36%1.145Median
87.36%1.145IQM
87.35%1.145Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.08 under the IQM model: 87.36%

EV -5.65%Edge -5.23%Kelly -70.63%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Tunde Segun Adeyemi (Visit)

7.0014.29%Min
7.7212.95%Mean
7.5013.33%Median
9.5010.53%Max
10.04%9.962Min
13.37%7.481Max
12.63%7.919Mean
12.64%7.912Median
12.64%7.912IQM
12.65%7.904Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 9.50 under the IQM model: 12.64%

EV +20.07%Edge +2.11%Kelly +2.36%Growth +0.474%

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

BookmakerTiago Muxanga (Local)Tunde Segun Adeyemi (Visit) ▼MarginUpdated
Hard Rock Bet1.06I 94.34% NM 89.96%EV -7.40% E -6.98% K -123.29% G +0.000%9.50I 10.53% NM 10.04%EV +20.07% E +2.11% K +2.36% G +0.474%4.9%2026-07-08 02:45
Bet Right1.08I 92.59% NM 88.11%EV -5.65% E -5.23% K -70.63% G +0.000%8.00I 12.50% NM 11.89%EV +1.11% E +0.139% K +0.159% G +0.002%5.1%2026-07-08 09:25
NordicBet1.05I 95.24% NM 88.14%EV -8.27% E -7.88% K -165.42% G +0.000%7.80I 12.82% NM 11.86%EV -1.41% E -0.181% K -0.208% G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-08 09:15
Betsson1.05I 95.24% NM 88.14%EV -8.27% E -7.88% K -165.42% G +0.000%7.80I 12.82% NM 11.86%EV -1.41% E -0.181% K -0.208% G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-08 09:15
BetUS1.08I 92.59% NM 87.41%EV -5.65% E -5.23% K -70.63% G +0.000%7.50I 13.33% NM 12.59%EV -5.21% E -0.694% K -0.801% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 02:45
DraftKings1.08I 92.59% NM 87.41%EV -5.65% E -5.23% K -70.63% G +0.000%7.50I 13.33% NM 12.59%EV -5.21% E -0.694% K -0.801% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 14:10
PlayUp1.07I 93.46% NM 87.51%EV -6.52% E -6.10% K -93.20% G +0.000%7.50I 13.33% NM 12.49%EV -5.21% E -0.694% K -0.801% G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-08 17:29
Betr (AU)1.07I 93.46% NM 87.51%EV -6.52% E -6.10% K -93.20% G +0.000%7.50I 13.33% NM 12.49%EV -5.21% E -0.694% K -0.801% G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-08 09:25
BetOnline.ag1.08I 92.59% NM 87.31%EV -5.65% E -5.23% K -70.63% G +0.000%7.43I 13.46% NM 12.69%EV -6.09% E -0.820% K -0.947% G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-08 06:34
LowVig.ag1.08I 92.59% NM 87.31%EV -5.65% E -5.23% K -70.63% G +0.000%7.43I 13.46% NM 12.69%EV -6.09% E -0.820% K -0.947% G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-08 06:34
Unibet (UK)1.08I 92.59% NM 86.63%EV -5.65% E -5.23% K -70.63% G +0.000%7.00I 14.29% NM 13.37%EV -11.53% E -1.65% K -1.92% G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-08 09:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
SportsBet1.12I 89.29% NM 82.79%7.25I 13.79% NM 12.79%21.00I 4.76% NM 4.42%7.8%2026-07-08 08:54
Unibet1.08I 92.59% NM 85.85%10.00I 10.00% NM 9.27%19.00I 5.26% NM 4.88%7.9%2026-07-08 02:40
LiveScore Bet1.08I 92.59% NM 85.85%10.00I 10.00% NM 9.27%19.00I 5.26% NM 4.88%7.9%2026-07-08 02:45
Virgin Bet1.08I 92.59% NM 85.85%10.00I 10.00% NM 9.27%19.00I 5.26% NM 4.88%7.9%2026-07-08 02:45
TABtouch1.08I 92.59% NM 85.85%10.00I 10.00% NM 9.27%19.00I 5.26% NM 4.88%7.9%2026-07-08 02:45
Grosvenor1.08I 92.59% NM 85.85%10.00I 10.00% NM 9.27%19.00I 5.26% NM 4.88%7.9%2026-07-08 02:44
1xBet1.08I 92.59% NM 84.87%7.42I 13.48% NM 12.35%33.00I 3.03% NM 2.78%9.1%2026-07-08 02:40
Paddy Power1.10I 90.91% NM 81.28%6.50I 15.38% NM 13.75%18.00I 5.56% NM 4.97%11.8%2026-07-08 09:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.10I 90.91% NM 81.28%6.50I 15.38% NM 13.75%18.00I 5.56% NM 4.97%11.8%2026-07-08 09:20