The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Tiago Muxanga v Tunde Segun Adeyemi

Kickoff: 2026-07-12 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tiago Muxanga (Local)

Prediction 88.00%1.14fair odd
EV -4.96%
Edge -4.59%
Kelly -61.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
85.40%88.00%88.00%89.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.071.071.0894.34%93.46%93.46%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tunde Segun Adeyemi (Visit)

Prediction 12.00%8.34fair odd
EV +7.96%
Edge +0.885%
Kelly +0.995%
Growth +0.079%

assuming max odds 9.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.63%12.00%12.00%14.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.207.808.009.0016.13%12.82%12.50%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -5.84%E -5.45%K -83.37%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +7.96%E +0.885%K +0.995%G +0.079%4.6%2026-07-12 17:14
LowVig.ag1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -5.84%E -5.45%K -83.37%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +7.96%E +0.885%K +0.995%G +0.079%4.6%2026-07-12 17:14
Unibet (UK)1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -4.96%E -4.59%K -61.95%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -16.03%E -2.29%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-12 17:44
NordicBet1.06I 94.34%NM 85.40%EV -6.72%E -6.34%K -111.93%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.60%EV -25.62%E -4.13%K -4.93%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-12 17:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
SportsBet1.12I 89.29%NM 82.79%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.79%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.42%7.8%2026-07-12 17:14
Paddy Power1.10I 90.91%NM 81.28%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.75%18.00I 5.56%NM 4.97%11.8%2026-07-12 17:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.10I 90.91%NM 81.28%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.75%18.00I 5.56%NM 4.97%11.8%2026-07-12 17:14