Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Taylor Bevan v Martin Bulacio

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 17:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Taylor Bevan (Local)

Prediction 91.45%1.09fair odd
EV -1.24%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -15.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
87.77%91.45%89.74%94.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.041.041.0899.01%96.29%96.15%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Martin Bulacio (Visit)

Prediction 8.55%11.69fair odd
EV +62.53%
Edge +3.29%
Kelly +3.47%
Growth +2.17%

assuming max odds 19.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.05%8.55%10.26%12.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.7511.879.2519.0012.90%8.42%10.81%5.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Taylor Bevan (Local): 91.45%; Martin Bulacio (Visit): 8.55%. For Martin Bulacio (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.69. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 19.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +62.53%.

5 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -7.64%E -7.56%K -763.97%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV +62.53%E +3.29%K +3.47%G +2.17%4.3%2026-03-21 17:14
LowVig.ag🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -7.64%E -7.56%K -763.97%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV +62.53%E +3.29%K +3.47%G +2.17%4.3%2026-03-21 17:14
Bet Right🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -3.98%E -3.79%K -79.64%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -14.46%E -1.45%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-21 17:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 89.89%EV -4.90%E -4.71%K -122.41%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.11%EV -20.87%E -2.26%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-21 17:14
FanDuel🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 89.74%EV -4.90%E -4.71%K -122.41%G +0.000%9.10I 10.99%NM 10.26%EV -22.16%E -2.43%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-21 17:14
Unibet (UK)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -4.90%E -4.71%K -122.41%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -23.01%E -2.56%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-21 17:14
PlayUp🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.77%EV -1.24%E -1.15%K -15.48%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.23%EV -33.71%E -4.35%K -4.99%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-21 17:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (5)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
SportsBet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.57%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.82%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.61%6.5%2026-03-21 17:14
Paddy Power🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.14%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.53%9.1%2026-03-21 17:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.14%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.53%9.1%2026-03-21 17:14
Betway🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 86.91%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.13%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.97%9.6%2026-03-21 17:14
888sport🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.69%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.33%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.98%10.3%2026-03-21 17:14