The School of Odds
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Tahmir Smalls v Abel Ramos

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 02:25 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tahmir Smalls (Local)

Prediction 72.24%1.38fair odd
EV +4.03%
Edge +2.80%
Kelly +9.16%
Growth +0.369%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.30%71.35%73.07%74.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.321.281.4480.00%75.53%78.13%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Abel Ramos (Visit)

Prediction 27.76%3.60fair odd
EV +4.09%
Edge +1.09%
Kelly +1.49%
Growth +0.061%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.30%28.65%26.93%34.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.713.313.503.7536.90%30.18%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tahmir Smalls (Local): 72.24%; Abel Ramos (Visit): 27.76%. For Abel Ramos (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.60. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.09%.

24 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.59%EV +4.03%E +2.80%K +9.16%G +0.369%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.41%EV -20.34%E -7.09%K -10.88%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-01 01:59
LowVig.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.30%EV +4.03%E +2.80%K +9.16%G +0.369%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.70%EV -24.78%E -9.14%K -14.49%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-01 02:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.30%EV +4.03%E +2.80%K +9.16%G +0.369%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.70%EV -24.78%E -9.14%K -14.49%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-01 02:09
Unibet (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -3.92%E -2.94%K -11.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -13.95%E -4.50%K -6.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-01 02:09
theScore Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.81%E -5.28%K -23.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -2.85%E -0.815%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-01 02:09
DraftKings🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -8.25%E -6.50%K -30.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV +4.09%E +1.09%K +1.49%G +0.061%5.4%2026-03-01 02:08
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -8.25%E -6.50%K -30.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV +4.09%E +1.09%K +1.49%G +0.061%5.4%2026-03-01 02:08
betPARX🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -8.97%E -7.12%K -34.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV +2.70%E +0.729%K +1.000%G +0.027%6.4%2026-03-01 02:09
Bally Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.96%EV -9.70%E -7.76%K -38.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -1.46%E -0.413%K -0.574%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-01 02:19
BetRivers🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -9.70%E -7.76%K -38.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -2.85%E -0.815%K -1.14%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-01 02:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (24)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
SportsBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.92%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.43%8.3%2026-03-01 02:09
NordicBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.36%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.61%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.03%8.4%2026-03-01 02:09
Betsson🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.36%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.61%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.03%8.4%2026-03-01 02:10
Coral🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%8.5%2026-03-01 02:01
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%8.5%2026-03-01 01:59
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.53%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.65%8.9%2026-03-01 02:09
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 64.12%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.75%9.1%2026-03-01 02:19
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 64.12%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.75%9.1%2026-03-01 02:19
Unibet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.42%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.68%10.1%2026-03-01 02:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.42%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.68%10.1%2026-03-01 02:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.42%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.68%10.1%2026-03-01 02:09
Svenska Spel🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.42%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.68%10.1%2026-03-01 02:09
ATG (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.42%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.68%10.1%2026-03-01 02:09
1xBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.78%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.50%10.1%2026-03-01 02:01
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 63.50%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.89%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.61%10.1%2026-03-01 02:15
William Hill🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.06%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.01%10.9%2026-03-01 02:09
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.07%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.28%11.4%2026-03-01 02:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.07%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.28%11.4%2026-03-01 02:09
Virgin Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 68.84%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.33%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.83%12.6%2026-03-01 02:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 68.84%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.33%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.83%12.6%2026-03-01 02:19
Grosvenor🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 68.84%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.33%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.83%12.6%2026-03-01 02:19
TABtouch🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 68.84%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.33%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.83%12.6%2026-03-01 02:19
LeoVegas🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 68.61%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.58%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.81%13.0%2026-03-01 02:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 68.35%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.65%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.00%14.3%2026-03-01 02:20