The School of Odds
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Skye Nicolson v Miyo Yoshida

2026-11-09 02:00 UTC — Boxing

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Skye Nicolson (Local)

Prediction 88.19%1.13fair odd
EV -5.63%
Edge -5.26%
Kelly -80.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.34%87.39%88.19%92.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.041.051.061.0796.15%94.79%94.79%93.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Miyo Yoshida (Visit)

Prediction 11.81%8.47fair odd
EV +53.49%
Edge +4.11%
Kelly +4.46%
Growth +2.38%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.47%12.61%11.81%15.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.608.688.4013.0017.86%11.52%11.90%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Skye Nicolson (Local): 88.19%; Miyo Yoshida (Visit): 11.81%. For Miyo Yoshida (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.47. 3 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 13.00, producing a positive expected value of +53.49%.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 92.53%EV -7.40%E -7.04%K -147.94%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.47%EV +53.49%E +4.11%K +4.46%G +2.38%2.9%2026-09-08 10:25
BetUS🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.64%EV -6.51%E -6.15%K -108.58%G +0.000%9.17I 10.91%NM 10.36%EV +8.27%E +0.901%K +1.01%G +0.084%5.2%2026-09-02 16:05
DraftKings🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.63%E -5.26%K -80.47%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +0.356%E +0.042%K +0.047%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-08 12:24
FanDuel🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.77%EV -7.40%E -7.04%K -147.94%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.23%EV -2.01%E -0.242%K -0.275%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-02 14:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.62%EV -6.51%E -6.15%K -108.58%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -11.45%E -1.53%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-08 12:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 84.34%EV -8.28%E -7.96%K -206.97%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.66%EV -33.88%E -6.05%K -7.37%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-08 12:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 88.36%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.51%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.12%6.8%2026-09-02 14:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 88.36%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.51%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.12%6.8%2026-09-02 14:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 88.36%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.51%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.12%6.8%2026-09-02 14:20
Unibet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.77%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.43%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.80%7.7%2026-09-02 14:20
Grosvenor🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.77%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.43%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.80%7.7%2026-09-02 14:20
TABtouch🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.77%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.43%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.80%7.7%2026-09-02 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.77%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.43%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.80%7.7%2026-09-02 15:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.77%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.43%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.80%7.7%2026-09-02 15:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.77%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.43%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.80%7.7%2026-09-03 15:20