The School of Odds
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Skye Nicolson v Mariah Turner

Kickoff: 2026-04-29 11:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Skye Nicolson (Local)

Prediction 86.90%1.15fair odd
EV -5.28%
Edge -4.84%
Kelly -58.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.46%86.65%86.90%88.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.041.071.071.0996.15%93.60%93.46%91.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mariah Turner (Visit)

Prediction 13.10%7.63fair odd
EV +4.79%
Edge +0.599%
Kelly +0.685%
Growth +0.033%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.80%13.35%13.10%16.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.307.227.208.0018.87%13.85%13.89%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Skye Nicolson (Local): 86.90%; Mariah Turner (Visit): 13.10%. For Mariah Turner (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.63. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.79%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Bet Right🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -6.15%E -5.69%K -76.84%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +4.79%E +0.599%K +0.685%G +0.033%5.1%2026-04-23 20:19
BetUS🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -7.02%E -6.56%K -100.23%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV +4.79%E +0.599%K +0.685%G +0.033%6.0%2026-04-20 17:04
Betclic (FR)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.17%EV -9.62%E -9.25%K -240.58%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.83%EV +1.52%E +0.196%K +0.225%G +0.003%9.1%2026-04-20 17:04
DraftKings🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -6.15%E -5.69%K -76.84%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -1.76%E -0.234%K -0.270%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-20 17:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -7.02%E -6.56%K -100.23%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -1.76%E -0.234%K -0.270%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 20:19
FanDuel🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.06%EV -7.02%E -6.56%K -100.23%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.94%EV -5.69%E -0.790%K -0.917%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 16:48
NordicBet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.17%EV -7.89%E -7.44%K -131.42%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.83%EV -5.69%E -0.790%K -0.917%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-24 00:55
Betsson🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.17%EV -7.89%E -7.44%K -131.42%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.83%EV -5.69%E -0.790%K -0.917%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-24 00:54
theScore Bet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.28%E -4.84%K -58.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -8.31%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-20 17:04
BetMGM🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -6.15%E -5.69%K -76.84%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -8.31%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-20 17:03
Unibet (UK)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -7.02%E -6.56%K -100.23%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -8.31%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-20 17:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 83.46%EV -8.75%E -8.34%K -175.08%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.54%EV -30.57%E -5.77%K -7.11%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-20 17:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Paddy Power🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.62%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.43%7.4%2026-04-23 16:49
SportsBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.62%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.43%7.4%2026-04-23 16:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.00%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%7.7%2026-04-23 20:09
Grosvenor🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.00%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%7.7%2026-04-23 20:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.00%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%7.7%2026-04-23 20:09
LiveScore Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.00%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%7.7%2026-04-23 20:09
Unibet (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.00%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%7.7%2026-04-23 20:09
LeoVegas🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.00%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%7.7%2026-04-23 20:09
TABtouch🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.00%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%7.7%2026-04-23 20:09
Virgin Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.00%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%7.7%2026-04-23 20:10
Unibet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.00%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%7.7%2026-04-23 20:09
Svenska Spel🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.00%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%7.7%2026-04-23 20:09
ATG (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.00%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%7.7%2026-04-23 20:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.40%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.23%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.37%9.0%2026-04-20 17:04
Coral🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.40%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.23%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.37%9.0%2026-04-20 17:03
1xBet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.56%7.85I 12.74%NM 11.66%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.77%9.2%2026-04-20 17:04
888sport🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 81.34%7.60I 13.16%NM 11.77%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.88%11.8%2026-04-24 00:54
William Hill🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 81.04%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.71%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.24%12.2%2026-04-20 17:04
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 74.98%6.80I 14.71%NM 12.13%6.40I 15.63%NM 12.89%21.2%2026-04-23 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 74.98%6.80I 14.71%NM 12.13%6.40I 15.63%NM 12.89%21.2%2026-04-23 16:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 74.98%6.80I 14.71%NM 12.13%6.40I 15.63%NM 12.89%21.2%2026-04-23 16:54