The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Ryusei Matsumoto v Yuni Takada

Kickoff: 2026-03-15 07:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ryusei Matsumoto (Local)

Prediction 81.44%1.23fair odd
EV -6.34%
Edge -5.51%
Kelly -42.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.22%81.44%80.69%84.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.071.111.101.1593.46%89.89%90.50%86.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Yuni Takada (Visit)

Prediction 13.04%7.67fair odd
EV +1.69%
Edge +0.217%
Kelly +0.249%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 7.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.57%13.04%13.26%13.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.607.177.007.8015.15%13.94%14.29%12.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 5.52%18.12fair odd
EV +21.42%
Edge +0.973%
Kelly +1.02%
Growth +0.218%

assuming max odds 22.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.10%5.52%6.05%6.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
15.0018.8821.0022.006.67%5.30%4.76%4.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ryusei Matsumoto (Local): 81.44%; Yuni Takada (Visit): 13.04%; Draw: 5.52%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 18.12. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 22.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +21.42%.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 84.33%EV -12.86%E -12.01%K -183.65%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.57%EV +1.69%E +0.217%K +0.249%G +0.004%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.10%EV +21.42%E +0.973%K +1.02%G +0.218%10.8%2026-03-15 05:30
SportsBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.27%EV -9.60%E -8.65%K -87.25%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.32%EV -2.22%E -0.296%K -0.341%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.40%EV +15.90%E +0.757%K +0.795%G +0.126%8.2%2026-03-11 20:05
Betway🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 83.53%EV -11.23%E -10.30%K -124.74%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.14%EV -2.22%E -0.296%K -0.341%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.34%EV +15.90%E +0.757%K +0.795%G +0.126%9.8%2026-03-11 14:24
Paddy Power🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 82.68%EV -10.41%E -9.47%K -104.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.99%EV -8.74%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.33%EV +15.90%E +0.757%K +0.795%G +0.126%10.0%2026-03-08 17:33
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 82.68%EV -10.41%E -9.47%K -104.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.99%EV -8.74%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.33%EV +15.90%E +0.757%K +0.795%G +0.126%10.0%2026-03-09 04:20
NordicBet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.58%EV -6.34%E -5.51%K -42.27%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -8.74%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.18%EV -17.22%E -1.15%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-14 18:00
Betsson🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.58%EV -6.34%E -5.51%K -42.27%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -8.74%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.18%EV -17.22%E -1.15%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-14 18:00
888sport🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.22%EV -7.97%E -7.05%K -61.30%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.73%EV -13.95%E -2.11%K -2.49%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.04%EV -17.22%E -1.15%K -1.23%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-12 09:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.53%10.04I 9.96%NM 9.47%5.2%2026-03-15 06:31
PlayUp🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%6.1%2026-03-12 09:10
FanDuel🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.45%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.55%7.4%2026-03-12 14:54