The School of Odds
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Richardson Hitchins v Ricardo Salas Rodriguez

Kickoff: 2026-07-27 01:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Richardson Hitchins (Local)

Prediction 85.13%1.17fair odd
EV -3.80%
Edge -3.37%
Kelly -29.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
82.29%85.20%85.20%86.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.111.111.1390.91%89.85%90.09%88.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ricardo Salas Rodriguez (Visit)

Prediction 14.87%6.72fair odd
EV +4.10%
Edge +0.586%
Kelly +0.683%
Growth +0.028%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.58%14.80%14.80%17.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.256.206.147.0019.05%16.13%16.29%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
theScore Bet1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.36%E -5.78%K -63.59%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +4.10%E +0.586%K +0.683%G +0.028%5.2%2026-07-26 15:20
Pinnacle1.12I 89.29%NM 85.73%EV -4.66%E -4.16%K -38.80%G +0.000%6.73I 14.86%NM 14.27%EV +0.085%E +0.013%K +0.015%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-27 01:00
FanDuel1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.51%E -4.96%K -50.07%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -3.34%E -0.513%K -0.606%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-26 23:05
BetOnline.ag1.11I 90.09%NM 84.98%EV -5.51%E -4.96%K -50.07%G +0.000%6.28I 15.92%NM 15.02%EV -6.61%E -1.05%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-27 00:35
LowVig.ag1.11I 90.09%NM 84.98%EV -5.51%E -4.96%K -50.07%G +0.000%6.28I 15.92%NM 15.02%EV -6.61%E -1.05%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-27 00:35
DraftKings1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.66%E -4.16%K -38.80%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.77%E -1.80%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-23 22:40
Betr (AU)1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.51%E -4.96%K -50.07%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -10.77%E -1.80%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-26 17:15
BetMGM1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.51%E -4.96%K -50.07%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -10.77%E -1.80%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-24 16:25
BetAnything1.11I 90.09%NM 84.28%EV -5.51%E -4.96%K -50.07%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 15.72%EV -11.52%E -1.94%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-27 00:40
PlayUp1.13I 88.50%NM 82.29%EV -3.80%E -3.37%K -29.27%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -21.93%E -4.18%K -5.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-26 05:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.19I 84.03%NM 80.95%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.38%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.67%3.8%2026-07-27 01:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.19I 84.03%NM 80.95%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.38%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.67%3.8%2026-07-27 01:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.19I 84.03%NM 80.65%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.71%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.65%4.2%2026-07-27 01:40
SportsBet1.13I 88.50%NM 81.46%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.38%8.6%2026-07-26 15:25
Ladbrokes (AU)1.13I 88.50%NM 81.46%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.38%8.6%2026-07-26 21:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.13I 88.50%NM 81.46%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.38%8.6%2026-07-26 03:10
Paddy Power1.12I 89.29%NM 81.59%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.06%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.35%9.4%2026-07-08 14:13
Coral1.12I 89.29%NM 81.59%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.06%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.35%9.4%2026-07-26 21:15
888sport1.15I 86.96%NM 79.00%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.22%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.78%10.1%2026-07-27 01:00