Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pryce Taylor v James Evans

Kickoff: 2026-02-23 01:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

87%

13%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pryce Taylor (Local)

Prediction 87.33%1.15fair odd

EV -5.68%

Edge -5.26%

Kelly -70.98%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

86.47%87.33%87.33%88.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.071.081.081.0893.46%93.02%93.02%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

James Evans (Visit)

Prediction 12.67%7.90fair odd

EV +1.32%

Edge +0.165%

Kelly +0.189%

Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

11.80%12.67%12.67%13.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

6.907.607.758.0014.49%13.16%12.90%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pryce Taylor (Local): 87.33%; James Evans (Visit): 12.67%. For James Evans (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.90. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.32%.

4 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Bet Right🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.68%E -5.26%K -70.98%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +1.32%E +0.165%K +0.189%G +0.003%	5.1%	2026-02-23 00:14
DraftKings🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -6.55%E -6.12%K -93.60%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV +1.32%E +0.165%K +0.189%G +0.003%	6.0%	2026-02-20 21:59
Betr (AU)🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -6.55%E -6.12%K -93.60%G +0.000%	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -5.01%E -0.668%K -0.771%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-02-23 00:14
FanDuel🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 86.47%EV -5.68%E -5.26%K -70.98%G +0.000%	6.90I 14.49%NM 13.53%EV -12.61%E -1.83%K -2.14%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-02-20 05:34

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (4)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
SportsBet🎯	1.09I 91.74%NM 84.88%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.56%	26.00I 3.85%NM 3.56%	8.1%	2026-02-20 05:35
1xBet🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 85.46%	9.10I 10.99%NM 10.14%	21.00I 4.76%NM 4.40%	8.3%	2026-02-22 21:44
Paddy Power🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 84.47%	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.05%	26.00I 3.85%NM 3.48%	10.6%	2026-02-20 05:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 84.47%	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.05%	26.00I 3.85%NM 3.48%	10.6%	2026-02-21 23:55