The School of Odds
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Oscar Duarte Jurado v Angel Fierro

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 02:12 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Oscar Duarte Jurado (Local)

Prediction 87.26%1.15fair odd
EV -4.02%
Edge -3.65%
Kelly -40.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
85.53%87.61%87.08%90.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.071.071.1098.04%93.73%93.46%90.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Angel Fierro (Visit)

Prediction 12.74%7.85fair odd
EV +21.04%
Edge +2.21%
Kelly +2.48%
Growth +0.521%

assuming max odds 9.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.95%12.39%12.92%14.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.707.509.5015.38%12.99%13.33%10.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Oscar Duarte Jurado (Local): 87.26%; Angel Fierro (Visit): 12.74%. For Angel Fierro (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.85. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +21.04%.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -7.51%E -7.08%K -125.09%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV +21.04%E +2.21%K +2.48%G +0.521%4.9%2026-05-03 02:10
LowVig.ag🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -7.51%E -7.08%K -125.09%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV +21.04%E +2.21%K +2.48%G +0.521%4.9%2026-05-03 02:10
DraftKings🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -8.38%E -7.98%K -167.56%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV +21.04%E +2.21%K +2.48%G +0.521%5.8%2026-05-03 02:10
Betsson🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 88.57%EV -11.00%E -10.78%K -549.79%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.43%EV +0.654%E +0.083%K +0.095%G +0.001%10.7%2026-05-03 02:08
NordicBet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 88.57%EV -11.00%E -10.78%K -549.79%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.43%EV +0.654%E +0.083%K +0.095%G +0.001%10.7%2026-05-03 02:08
betPARX🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.76%E -5.33%K -72.00%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -4.44%E -0.592%K -0.683%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 02:10
theScore Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.76%E -5.33%K -72.00%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -4.44%E -0.592%K -0.683%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 02:07
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.02%E -3.65%K -40.15%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -10.81%E -1.54%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-03 01:58
Unibet (UK)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -6.63%E -6.20%K -94.76%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -10.81%E -1.54%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 02:07
FanDuel🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.29%EV -5.76%E -5.33%K -72.00%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.71%EV -13.36%E -1.96%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 02:10
Bally Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.21%EV -5.76%E -5.33%K -72.00%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.79%EV -14.00%E -2.07%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-03 02:10
BetRivers🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.32%EV -6.63%E -6.20%K -94.76%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV -14.00%E -2.07%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-03 02:10
BetMGM🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -4.02%E -3.65%K -40.15%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -17.18%E -2.64%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 02:03
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.07I 93.46%NM 88.88%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.32%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.80%5.2%2026-05-03 02:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.07I 93.46%NM 88.88%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.32%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.80%5.2%2026-05-03 02:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.07I 93.46%NM 88.04%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.25%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.71%6.2%2026-05-03 02:10
Paddy Power🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.04%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.56%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.40%8.2%2026-05-03 02:10
SportsBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.04%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.56%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.40%8.2%2026-05-03 02:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.04%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.56%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.40%8.2%2026-05-03 02:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.55%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.09%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.36%9.1%2026-05-03 02:09
Coral🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.55%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.09%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.36%9.1%2026-05-03 02:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.02%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.81%9.5%2026-05-03 02:10
Unibet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.02%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.81%9.5%2026-05-03 02:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.02%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.81%9.5%2026-05-03 02:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.02%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.81%9.5%2026-05-03 02:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.02%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.81%9.5%2026-05-03 02:10
William Hill🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 81.84%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.86%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.30%11.1%2026-05-03 02:10
TABtouch🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 81.27%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.96%11.9%2026-05-03 02:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 80.89%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.18%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.93%12.4%2026-05-03 02:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 80.89%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.18%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.93%12.4%2026-05-03 02:10
Grosvenor🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 80.89%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.18%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.93%12.4%2026-05-03 02:10
LeoVegas🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 80.55%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.13%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.33%12.9%2026-05-03 02:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 80.55%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.13%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.33%12.9%2026-05-03 02:10