The School of Odds
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Moses Itauma v Jermaine Franklin Jr

Kickoff: 2026-03-28 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Moses Itauma (Local)

Prediction 92.65%1.08fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -2.59%
Kelly -54.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
90.58%92.79%92.59%94.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.031.041.0599.01%96.74%96.62%95.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jermaine Franklin Jr (Visit)

Prediction 7.35%13.61fair odd
EV +39.62%
Edge +2.09%
Kelly +2.20%
Growth +0.872%

assuming max odds 19.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.05%7.21%7.41%9.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0013.0412.7519.0010.00%7.67%7.84%5.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Moses Itauma (Local): 92.65%; Jermaine Franklin Jr (Visit): 7.35%. For Jermaine Franklin Jr (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.61. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 19.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +39.62%.

25 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -6.42%E -6.36%K -642.20%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV +39.62%E +2.09%K +2.20%G +0.872%4.3%2026-03-23 18:34
LowVig.ag🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -6.42%E -6.36%K -642.20%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV +39.62%E +2.09%K +2.20%G +0.872%4.3%2026-03-23 18:34
FanDuel🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 92.83%EV -2.72%E -2.59%K -54.32%G +0.000%13.60I 7.35%NM 7.17%EV -0.060%E -0.004%K -0.005%G +0.000%2.6%2026-03-27 20:30
Pinnacle🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 92.85%EV -3.64%E -3.50%K -91.06%G +0.000%13.51I 7.40%NM 7.15%EV -0.722%E -0.053%K -0.058%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-26 02:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 92.59%EV -3.64%E -3.50%K -91.06%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV -4.47%E -0.344%K -0.372%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-27 17:54
theScore Bet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 92.59%EV -3.64%E -3.50%K -91.06%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV -4.47%E -0.344%K -0.372%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-23 22:34
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.57%E -4.44%K -152.30%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -4.47%E -0.344%K -0.372%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-23 19:49
Bovada🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.57%E -4.44%K -152.30%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -4.47%E -0.344%K -0.372%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-27 20:01
BetRivers🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -4.57%E -4.44%K -152.30%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV -8.14%E -0.651%K -0.708%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-23 19:49
Bally Bet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -4.57%E -4.44%K -152.30%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV -8.14%E -0.651%K -0.708%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-23 19:49
betPARX🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -4.57%E -4.44%K -152.30%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV -8.14%E -0.651%K -0.708%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-23 19:49
PlayUp🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -3.64%E -3.50%K -91.06%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -11.82%E -0.985%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-25 14:39
DraftKings🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -2.72%E -2.59%K -54.32%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -19.17%E -1.74%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-24 15:35
Bet Right🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -3.64%E -3.50%K -91.06%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -19.17%E -1.74%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-26 16:49
BetUS🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -3.64%E -3.50%K -91.06%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -26.51%E -2.65%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-20 05:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -4.57%E -4.44%K -152.30%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -26.51%E -2.65%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-26 13:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (25)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 93.11%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.48%70.00I 1.43%NM 1.41%1.3%2026-03-27 22:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 93.11%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.48%70.00I 1.43%NM 1.41%1.3%2026-03-27 22:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 93.11%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.48%70.00I 1.43%NM 1.41%1.3%2026-03-27 22:20
SportsBet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.12%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.57%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.31%5.7%2026-03-27 20:29
Paddy Power🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 89.93%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.28%6.9%2026-03-27 20:30
Unibet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.81%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.46%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.73%7.2%2026-03-23 19:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.81%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.46%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.73%7.2%2026-03-23 19:49
LeoVegas🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.81%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.46%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.73%7.2%2026-03-23 19:49
Grosvenor🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.81%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.46%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.73%7.2%2026-03-23 19:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.81%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.46%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.73%7.2%2026-03-23 19:49
TABtouch🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.81%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.46%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.73%7.2%2026-03-23 19:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.81%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.46%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.73%7.2%2026-03-23 19:49
Unibet (NL)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.81%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.46%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.73%7.2%2026-03-23 19:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.81%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.46%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.73%7.2%2026-03-23 19:49
ATG (SE)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.81%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.46%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.73%7.2%2026-03-23 19:49
Svenska Spel🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.81%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.46%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.73%7.2%2026-03-23 19:49
William Hill🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.94%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.74%7.3%2026-03-27 10:20
Betsson🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 87.92%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.39%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.69%8.3%2026-03-18 13:09
NordicBet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 87.92%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.39%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.69%8.3%2026-03-18 13:10
Betway🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.14%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.53%9.1%2026-03-25 15:10
Coral🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.14%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.53%9.1%2026-02-20 05:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.14%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.53%9.1%2026-02-20 05:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.14%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.53%9.1%2026-03-22 02:30
888sport🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 87.61%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.80%9.8%2026-03-25 14:40
1xBet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 87.52%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.01%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.47%10.9%2026-03-28 03:00