The School of Odds

Moses Itauma v Filip Hrgović

2026-08-29 21:00 UTC — Boxing

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Moses Itauma (Local)

Prediction 82.83%1.21fair odd
EV -5.57%
Edge -4.89%
Kelly -39.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.43%83.02%82.83%87.31%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.091.131.141.1491.74%88.50%87.72%87.72%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Filip Hrgović (Visit)

Prediction 17.17%5.82fair odd
EV +28.77%
Edge +3.84%
Kelly +4.43%
Growth +1.27%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.69%16.98%17.17%18.57%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
5.005.705.507.5020.00%17.54%18.18%13.33%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Hard Rock Bet1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -9.71%E -8.91%K -107.93%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +28.77%E +3.84%K +4.43%G +1.27%5.1%2026-07-15 09:59
FanDuel1.11I 90.09%NM 85.02%EV -8.06%E -7.26%K -73.25%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.98%EV +8.16%E +1.30%K +1.54%G +0.126%6.0%2026-07-07 11:19
DraftKings1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.80%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -5.57%E -1.01%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-13 12:35
BetUS1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.80%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -5.57%E -1.01%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-07 11:20
BetOnline.ag1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.80%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -5.57%E -1.01%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-07 11:20
LowVig.ag1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.80%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -5.57%E -1.01%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-07 11:20
theScore Bet1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.80%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -5.57%E -1.01%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-07 11:20
BetAnything1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -5.57%E -4.89%K -39.80%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -14.16%E -2.83%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-10 13:55
Unibet (UK)1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -6.40%E -5.66%K -49.24%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -14.16%E -2.83%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-13 12:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.19I 84.03%NM 79.94%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.40%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.66%5.1%2026-07-27 06:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.19I 84.03%NM 79.94%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.40%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.66%5.1%2026-07-27 06:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.19I 84.03%NM 79.94%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.40%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.66%5.1%2026-07-27 06:35
Grosvenor1.11I 90.09%NM 83.73%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.65%7.6%2026-07-14 15:49
TABtouch1.11I 90.09%NM 83.73%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.65%7.6%2026-07-14 15:49
Unibet1.11I 90.09%NM 83.73%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.65%7.6%2026-07-14 15:49
1xBet1.16I 86.21%NM 79.69%5.28I 18.94%NM 17.51%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.80%8.2%2026-07-07 11:28
Ladbrokes (AU)1.17I 85.47%NM 78.84%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.39%8.4%2026-07-18 19:35
Coral1.17I 85.47%NM 78.84%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.39%8.4%2026-07-18 19:35
Everygame1.15I 86.96%NM 78.76%5.35I 18.69%NM 16.93%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.31%10.4%2026-07-09 08:34