The School of OddsMoses Itauma v Filip Hrgović
Head to Head
5 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Option 1: Moses Itauma (Local)
Odds
1.1190.09%Min
1.1388.50%Mean
1.1487.72%Median
1.1487.72%Max
Consensus probabilities
82.42%1.213Min
85.02%1.176Max
83.47%1.198Mean
82.83%1.207Median
83.31%1.200IQM
83.53%1.197Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.14 under the IQM model: 83.31%
EV -5.03%Edge -4.41%Kelly -35.90%Growth +0.000%
Option 2: Filip Hrgović (Visit)
Odds
5.2519.05%Min
5.6517.70%Mean
5.5018.18%Median
6.3015.87%Max
Consensus probabilities
14.98%6.676Min
17.58%5.688Max
16.53%6.051Mean
17.17%5.825Median
16.69%5.992IQM
16.47%6.071Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 6.30 under the IQM model: 16.69%
EV +5.14%Edge +0.816%Kelly +0.970%Growth +0.050%
Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Moses Itauma (Local) | Filip Hrgović (Visit) ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 1.11I 90.09% NM 85.02%EV -7.53% E -6.78% K -68.41% G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87% NM 14.98%EV +5.14% E +0.816% K +0.970% G +0.050% | 6.0% | 2026-07-07 11:19 |
| DraftKings | 1.12I 89.29% NM 84.27%EV -6.69% E -5.97% K -55.77% G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67% NM 15.73%EV +0.135% E +0.023% K +0.027% G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-07 11:20 |
| BetUS | 1.14I 87.72% NM 82.83%EV -5.03% E -4.41% K -35.90% G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18% NM 17.17%EV -8.21% E -1.49% K -1.82% G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-07 11:20 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.14I 87.72% NM 82.83%EV -5.03% E -4.41% K -35.90% G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18% NM 17.17%EV -8.21% E -1.49% K -1.82% G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-07 11:20 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.14I 87.72% NM 82.83%EV -5.03% E -4.41% K -35.90% G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18% NM 17.17%EV -8.21% E -1.49% K -1.82% G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-07 11:20 |
| theScore Bet | 1.14I 87.72% NM 82.83%EV -5.03% E -4.41% K -35.90% G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18% NM 17.17%EV -8.21% E -1.49% K -1.82% G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-07 11:20 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.12I 89.29% NM 82.42%EV -6.69% E -5.97% K -55.77% G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05% NM 17.58%EV -12.38% E -2.36% K -2.91% G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-07 11:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (5)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.16I 86.21% NM 79.69% | 5.28I 18.94% NM 17.51% | 33.00I 3.03% NM 2.80% | 8.2% | 2026-07-07 11:28 |
| Everygame | 1.15I 86.96% NM 78.50% | 5.25I 19.05% NM 17.20% | 21.00I 4.76% NM 4.30% | 10.8% | 2026-07-07 11:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.19I 84.03% NM 67.75% | 2.82I 35.46% NM 28.59% | 22.00I 4.55% NM 3.66% | 24.0% | 2026-07-07 18:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.19I 84.03% NM 67.75% | 2.82I 35.46% NM 28.59% | 22.00I 4.55% NM 3.66% | 24.0% | 2026-07-07 18:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.19I 84.03% NM 57.90% | 2.82I 35.46% NM 24.43% | 3.90I 25.64% NM 17.67% | 45.1% | 2026-07-07 18:15 |