The School of Odds
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Moses Itauma v Filip Hrgović

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 21:55 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Moses Itauma (Local)

Prediction 84.37%1.19fair odd
EV -3.82%
Edge -3.35%
Kelly -27.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
82.16%84.23%84.48%87.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.081.101.111.1492.59%90.55%90.09%87.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Filip Hrgović (Visit)

Prediction 15.63%6.40fair odd
EV +17.23%
Edge +2.30%
Kelly +2.65%
Growth +0.457%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.59%15.77%15.52%17.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.006.216.227.5020.00%16.10%16.06%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Moses Itauma (Local): 84.37%; Filip Hrgović (Visit): 15.63%. For Filip Hrgović (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.40. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +17.23%.

14 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetUS🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -8.88%E -8.22%K -111.02%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV +17.23%E +2.30%K +2.65%G +0.457%5.9%2026-08-29 21:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -8.04%E -7.37%K -89.31%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV +9.42%E +1.35%K +1.57%G +0.148%6.0%2026-08-29 21:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -8.04%E -7.37%K -89.31%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV +9.42%E +1.35%K +1.57%G +0.148%6.0%2026-08-29 21:40
Bet Right🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -6.35%E -5.72%K -57.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV +5.51%E +0.816%K +0.958%G +0.053%4.9%2026-08-29 21:35
BetAnything🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.92%EV -8.04%E -7.37%K -89.31%G +0.000%6.65I 15.04%NM 14.08%EV +3.95%E +0.593%K +0.698%G +0.028%6.8%2026-08-29 21:30
theScore Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -5.51%E -4.92%K -45.89%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV +1.60%E +0.246%K +0.291%G +0.005%4.7%2026-08-29 21:45
DraftKings🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.35%E -5.72%K -57.73%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +1.60%E +0.246%K +0.291%G +0.005%5.5%2026-08-24 10:49
Winamax (DE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -6.35%E -5.72%K -57.73%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -2.31%E -0.369%K -0.439%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-29 20:50
FanDuel🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -5.51%E -4.92%K -45.89%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -3.09%E -0.498%K -0.594%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-29 19:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.51%E -4.92%K -45.89%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -6.21%E -1.04%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 20:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.51%E -4.92%K -45.89%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -6.21%E -1.04%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 05:50
Bovada🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.35%E -5.72%K -57.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -6.21%E -1.04%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 21:48
Betsson🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 83.20%EV -8.04%E -7.37%K -89.31%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.80%EV -15.59%E -2.89%K -3.54%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-29 21:30
NordicBet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 83.20%EV -8.04%E -7.37%K -89.31%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.80%EV -15.59%E -2.89%K -3.54%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-29 21:35
BetMGM🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -3.82%E -3.35%K -27.28%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -17.94%E -3.42%K -4.22%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 19:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 82.24%EV -8.88%E -8.22%K -111.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.76%EV -21.84%E -4.37%K -5.46%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-29 20:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (14)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 84.88%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.79%75.00I 1.33%NM 1.32%0.7%2026-08-29 21:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 84.80%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.78%70.00I 1.43%NM 1.42%0.8%2026-08-29 21:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 84.80%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.78%70.00I 1.43%NM 1.42%0.8%2026-08-29 21:40
SportsBet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.37%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.74%7.4%2026-08-29 14:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.51%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.58%7.5%2026-08-29 19:25
Coral🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.51%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.58%7.5%2026-08-29 19:25
888sport🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.51%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.58%7.5%2026-08-29 11:00
Grosvenor🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.89%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.71%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.41%8.1%2026-08-28 18:30
TABtouch🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.89%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.71%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.41%8.1%2026-08-28 18:30
Unibet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.89%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.71%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.41%8.1%2026-08-28 18:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.89%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.71%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.41%8.1%2026-08-28 18:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.86%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.72%8.1%2026-08-29 18:45
Betway🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.05%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.40%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.55%8.2%2026-08-29 17:04
Paddy Power🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.99%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.70%8.9%2026-08-29 14:25