The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Max Reeves v Francis Waitai

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Max Reeves (Local)

Prediction 67.78%1.48fair odd
EV -1.72%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -3.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.06%67.61%67.68%69.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.381.371.4575.76%72.35%72.99%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Francis Waitai (Visit)

Prediction 32.22%3.10fair odd
EV -0.442%
Edge -0.143%
Kelly -0.211%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.52%32.39%32.32%34.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.882.903.0938.46%34.71%34.48%32.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Max Reeves (Local): 67.78%; Francis Waitai (Visit): 32.22%. For Francis Waitai (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.10. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.09, with an expected value of -0.442%; they did not produce positive expected value.

12 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -1.72%E -1.18%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -13.01%E -4.82%K -7.65%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-04 22:15
Bet Right🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.07%E -2.15%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -8.17%E -2.87%K -4.42%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-04 22:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.11%EV -4.43%E -3.14%K -10.80%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -11.40%E -4.14%K -6.51%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 22:14
theScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.11%E -3.65%K -12.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.56%E -2.26%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 22:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.92%EV -7.14%E -5.21%K -19.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -6.56%E -2.26%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 22:14
LowVig.ag🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.44%EV -7.82%E -5.75%K -21.72%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.56%EV -0.442%E -0.143%K -0.211%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 22:14
BetOnline.ag🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.44%EV -7.82%E -5.75%K -21.72%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.56%EV -0.442%E -0.143%K -0.211%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 22:15
FanDuel🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.48%EV -9.17%E -6.85%K -26.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -1.73%E -0.567%K -0.844%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-04 22:14
Winamax (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 66.33%EV -10.53%E -7.98%K -32.91%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.67%EV -16.23%E -6.24%K -10.14%G +0.000%14.2%2026-04-04 22:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (12)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.60%3.13I 31.95%NM 29.59%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.81%8.0%2026-04-04 22:14
Betsson🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.58%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%15.50I 6.45%NM 5.97%8.1%2026-04-04 22:14
NordicBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.58%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%15.50I 6.45%NM 5.97%8.1%2026-04-04 22:15
SportsBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 66.25%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.42%8.6%2026-04-04 22:14
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.45%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.46%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.09%9.4%2026-04-04 22:14
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 62.84%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.80%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.35%9.7%2026-04-04 22:44
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 62.84%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.80%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.35%9.7%2026-04-04 22:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 62.84%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.80%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.35%9.7%2026-04-04 22:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.25%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.70%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.05%10.2%2026-04-04 22:54
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.45%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.32%10.7%2026-04-04 22:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.45%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.32%10.7%2026-04-04 22:14
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.22%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.22%12.7%2026-04-04 22:14