The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Louie Ward v Jon Martinez

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Louie Ward (Local)

Prediction 93.48%1.07fair odd
EV -5.58%
Edge -5.53%
Kelly -558.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
92.24%93.47%93.48%95.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.011.011.0199.01%99.01%99.01%99.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jon Martinez (Visit)

Prediction 6.52%15.34fair odd
EV +36.89%
Edge +1.76%
Kelly +1.84%
Growth +0.681%

assuming max odds 21.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.59%6.53%6.52%7.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
12.0015.3514.5021.008.33%6.51%6.90%4.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Louie Ward (Local): 93.48%; Jon Martinez (Visit): 6.52%. For Jon Martinez (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 15.34. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 21.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +36.89%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetUS🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -5.58%E -5.53%K -558.39%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +36.89%E +1.76%K +1.84%G +0.681%3.8%2026-08-20 15:09
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.82%EV -5.58%E -5.53%K -558.39%G +0.000%18.50I 5.41%NM 5.18%EV +20.60%E +1.11%K +1.18%G +0.242%4.4%2026-08-20 15:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.69%EV -5.58%E -5.53%K -558.39%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV +17.34%E +0.963%K +1.02%G +0.177%4.6%2026-08-22 14:30
Bet Right🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -5.58%E -5.53%K -558.39%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV +4.30%E +0.269%K +0.287%G +0.012%5.3%2026-08-20 15:09
DraftKings🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.58%E -5.53%K -558.39%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -2.22%E -0.148%K -0.159%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-20 15:09
LowVig.ag🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -5.58%E -5.53%K -558.39%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -8.74%E -0.624%K -0.672%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-22 04:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -5.58%E -5.53%K -558.39%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -8.74%E -0.624%K -0.672%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-22 04:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.58%E -5.53%K -558.39%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -15.26%E -1.17%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-20 15:09
Betsson🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.24%EV -5.58%E -5.53%K -558.39%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -21.78%E -1.81%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-20 15:09
NordicBet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.24%EV -5.58%E -5.53%K -558.39%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -21.78%E -1.81%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-20 15:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
SportsBet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 94.41%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.70%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.89%3.8%2026-08-20 15:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.59%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.11%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.31%5.8%2026-08-20 15:10
Paddy Power🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.59%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.11%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.31%5.8%2026-08-20 15:10
Unibet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.93%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.93%6.7%2026-08-20 15:09
TABtouch🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.93%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.93%6.7%2026-08-20 15:09
Grosvenor🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.93%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.93%6.7%2026-08-20 15:10
1xBet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 90.04%12.80I 7.81%NM 7.18%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.78%8.9%2026-08-22 12:09
Betway🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 89.99%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.06%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.95%10.0%2026-08-22 13:29