Language:English
Leighton Birchall v Leonardo Baez
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Leighton Birchall (Local)
assuming max odds 1.02
Leonardo Baez (Visit)
assuming max odds 14.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Leighton Birchall (Local): 92.17%; Leonardo Baez (Visit): 7.83%. For Leonardo Baez (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.76. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 14.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.68%.
4 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -5.99%E -5.87%K -299.54%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV +9.68%E +0.691%K +0.744%G +0.072% | 5.2% | 2026-05-15 15:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -5.99%E -5.87%K -299.54%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -5.99%E -0.499%K -0.545%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-15 16:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -5.99%E -5.87%K -299.54%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -13.82%E -1.26%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-16 15:05 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (4)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.16% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.52% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.32% | 5.2% | 2026-05-13 09:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.42% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.96% | 36.00I 2.78%NM 2.62% | 6.1% | 2026-05-13 09:19 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.42% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.96% | 36.00I 2.78%NM 2.62% | 6.1% | 2026-05-13 09:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 88.63% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.35% | 9.5% | 2026-05-16 11:05 |