The School of Odds
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Kosuke Tomioka v Atsuki Sano

2026-10-29 09:10 UTC — Boxing

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kosuke Tomioka (Local)

Prediction 60.70%1.65fair odd
EV -4.09%
Edge -2.59%
Kelly -7.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.98%60.49%61.40%62.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.551.541.5866.23%64.64%64.72%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atsuki Sano (Visit)

Prediction 39.30%2.54fair odd
EV -1.75%
Edge -0.701%
Kelly -1.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.66%39.51%38.60%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.182.362.382.5045.87%42.46%41.93%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Kosuke Tomioka (Local): 60.70%; Atsuki Sano (Visit): 39.30%. For Atsuki Sano (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.54. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.50, with an expected value of -1.75%; they do not produce positive expected value.

6 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -4.09%E -2.59%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -9.61%E -4.18%K -7.39%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-29 05:54
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.98%EV -4.09%E -2.59%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.02%EV -14.33%E -6.57%K -12.14%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-29 05:55
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.98%EV -4.09%E -2.59%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.02%EV -14.33%E -6.57%K -12.14%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-29 05:55
Bet Right🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%EV -5.31%E -3.40%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -4.90%E -2.02%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-29 06:20
picklebet_au🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -5.91%E -3.82%K -10.75%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -11.58%E -5.15%K -9.26%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-29 05:55
DraftKings🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -6.52%E -4.23%K -12.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -3.72%E -1.52%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-29 05:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.41%EV -6.52%E -4.23%K -12.07%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -7.65%E -3.25%K -5.66%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-29 06:20
FanDuel🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.42%EV -7.73%E -5.09%K -14.87%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.58%EV -4.90%E -2.02%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-29 05:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -8.34%E -5.52%K -16.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -1.75%E -0.701%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-29 06:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -8.34%E -5.52%K -16.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -1.75%E -0.701%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-29 06:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (6)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
SportsBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.30%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.83%7.2%2026-10-29 05:55
1xBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.17%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.03%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.80%8.1%2026-10-29 05:55
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.18%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.91%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.91%11.4%2026-10-29 05:55
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.81%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.38%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.80%13.1%2026-10-29 05:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.81%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.38%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.80%13.1%2026-10-29 05:55
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.82%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.29%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.88%13.3%2026-10-29 05:55