The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Kieron Conway v Mark Jeffers

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kieron Conway (Local)

Prediction 56.28%1.78fair odd
EV -4.89%
Edge -2.89%
Kelly -7.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.99%56.28%56.00%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.671.671.6960.61%59.98%59.88%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mark Jeffers (Visit)

Prediction 43.72%2.29fair odd
EV -3.81%
Edge -1.73%
Kelly -3.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.86%43.72%44.00%44.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.172.182.2047.62%46.11%45.87%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kieron Conway (Local): 56.28%; Mark Jeffers (Visit): 43.72%. For Mark Jeffers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.29. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.20, with an expected value of -3.81%; they did not produce positive expected value.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.89%E -2.89%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -6.00%E -2.79%K -5.22%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-22 22:25
Bet Right🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.45%E -3.24%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.69%E -2.15%K -3.97%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-23 20:44
BetUS🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.01%E -3.60%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.81%E -1.73%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-22 22:24
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.01%E -3.60%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.81%E -1.73%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 15:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.43%EV -6.58%E -3.96%K -9.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -6.00%E -2.79%K -5.22%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 20:30
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.14%E -4.33%K -10.98%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.81%E -1.73%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-22 22:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -7.14%E -4.33%K -10.98%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -8.19%E -3.90%K -7.44%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-22 22:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
888sport🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.04%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.06%9.0%2026-04-22 22:24
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.01%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.10%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.89%13.1%2026-04-22 22:25