The School of Odds
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Kieran Molloy v Xavier Kohlen

Kickoff: 2026-03-20 20:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kieran Molloy (Local)

Prediction 87.74%1.14fair odd
EV -3.48%
Edge -3.17%
Kelly -34.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
85.71%87.43%87.51%88.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.081.071.1094.34%92.98%93.46%90.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Xavier Kohlen (Visit)

Prediction 12.26%8.16fair odd
EV +4.18%
Edge +0.491%
Kelly +0.557%
Growth +0.023%

assuming max odds 8.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.18%12.57%12.49%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.607.698.008.5015.15%13.01%12.50%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kieran Molloy (Local): 87.74%; Xavier Kohlen (Visit): 12.26%. For Xavier Kohlen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.16. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.18%.

13 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Bet Right🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.11%E -5.71%K -87.34%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +4.18%E +0.491%K +0.557%G +0.023%5.2%2026-03-20 20:39
PlayUp🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.11%E -5.71%K -87.34%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +4.18%E +0.491%K +0.557%G +0.023%5.2%2026-03-20 20:39
DraftKings🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -6.11%E -5.71%K -87.34%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -1.95%E -0.244%K -0.279%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-20 20:40
theScore Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -6.11%E -5.71%K -87.34%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -1.95%E -0.244%K -0.279%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-20 20:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -6.99%E -6.60%K -116.52%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -1.95%E -0.244%K -0.279%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-20 20:39
FanDuel🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -6.11%E -5.71%K -87.34%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -8.08%E -1.08%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-20 20:40
BetMGM🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -6.11%E -5.71%K -87.34%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -8.08%E -1.08%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-20 20:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.71%EV -3.48%E -3.17%K -34.82%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.29%EV -19.11%E -2.90%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-20 20:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.71%EV -3.48%E -3.17%K -34.82%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.29%EV -19.11%E -2.90%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-20 20:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (13)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
SportsBet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.73%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.68%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.59%7.0%2026-03-20 20:39
NordicBet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.45%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.69%8.4%2026-03-20 20:39
Betsson🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.45%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.69%8.4%2026-03-20 20:40
Paddy Power🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.11%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.50%9.8%2026-03-20 20:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.11%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.50%9.8%2026-03-20 20:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.29%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.33%9.9%2026-03-20 20:40
Coral🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.29%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.33%9.9%2026-03-20 20:40
Betway🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.29%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.33%9.9%2026-03-20 20:39
William Hill🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 83.40%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.90%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.70%12.1%2026-03-20 20:39
888sport🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 84.15%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.15%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.69%12.1%2026-03-20 20:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.11I 90.09%NM 80.21%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.37%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.42%12.3%2026-03-20 20:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.11I 90.09%NM 80.21%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.37%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.42%12.3%2026-03-20 20:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.11I 90.09%NM 45.63%7.20I 13.89%NM 7.03%1.07I 93.46%NM 47.34%97.4%2026-03-20 20:40