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Julian Rodriguez v James Perella
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Julian Rodriguez (Local)
assuming max odds 1.09
James Perella (Visit)
assuming max odds 12.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Julian Rodriguez (Local): 86.93%; James Perella (Visit): 13.07%. For James Perella (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.65. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +56.87%.
8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -9.60%E -9.23%K -239.88%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +56.87%E +4.74%K +5.17%G +2.94% | 4.5% | 2026-05-11 02:03 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -8.73%E -8.31%K -174.52%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV +17.65%E +1.96%K +2.21%G +0.389% | 6.3% | 2026-05-11 02:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -6.99%E -6.53%K -99.82%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV +4.58%E +0.572%K +0.654%G +0.030% | 6.0% | 2026-05-09 15:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -6.12%E -5.66%K -76.48%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -1.96%E -0.261%K -0.301%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-11 01:14 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.44%EV -5.25%E -4.82%K -58.32%G +0.000% | 6.95I 14.39%NM 13.56%EV -9.15%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-11 02:14 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -5.25%E -4.82%K -58.32%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -15.03%E -2.31%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-11 02:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -5.25%E -4.82%K -58.32%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -15.03%E -2.31%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-10 22:23 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.56% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.84% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.60% | 7.0% | 2026-05-09 15:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.67% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.57% | 7.8% | 2026-05-09 15:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.67% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.57% | 7.8% | 2026-05-09 21:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 84.29% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.33% | 9.9% | 2026-05-09 15:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 83.56% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.18% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.26% | 11.8% | 2026-05-09 15:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 79.38% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 12.96% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.66% | 13.5% | 2026-05-11 02:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 79.38% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 12.96% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.66% | 13.5% | 2026-05-11 02:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 46.61% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 7.61% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 45.78% | 93.3% | 2026-05-11 02:09 |