Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 4.00
assuming max odds 1.27
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jose Ramirez (Local): 24.81%; Alexis Rocha (Visit): 75.19%. For Jose Ramirez (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.03. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.00, with an expected value of -0.771%; they did not produce positive expected value.
10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.771%E -0.193%K -0.257%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.01%E -4.81%K -24.04%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-12 20:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -0.771%E -0.193%K -0.257%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -6.76%E -5.45%K -28.17%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-12 14:21 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -0.771%E -0.193%K -0.257%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -8.26%E -6.77%K -37.57%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-12 14:21 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -5.73%E -1.51%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -6.76%E -5.45%K -28.17%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-12 14:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -5.73%E -1.51%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.55%EV -7.51%E -6.11%K -32.67%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-08 17:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.97%E -1.86%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.51%E -3.55%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-09 13:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -9.45%E -2.59%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -4.51%E -3.55%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -9.45%E -2.59%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -4.51%E -3.55%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -9.45%E -2.59%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -4.51%E -3.55%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -13.17%E -3.76%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -4.51%E -3.55%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 09:29 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.58% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.23% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.19% | 7.1% | 2026-09-09 09:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.74% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.39% | 8.7% | 2026-09-12 21:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.74% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.39% | 8.7% | 2026-09-12 21:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.74% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.39% | 8.7% | 2026-09-12 21:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.19% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.41% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.40% | 9.0% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.19% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.41% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.40% | 9.0% | 2026-09-12 14:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.27% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37% | 9.5% | 2026-09-09 09:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.67I 27.25%NM 24.80% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.00% | 17.50I 5.71%NM 5.20% | 9.9% | 2026-09-12 14:21 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.15% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.31% | 10.9% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.69% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.08% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.23% | 12.5% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |