The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Jose Armando Resendiz v Jaime Munguia

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 03:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jose Armando Resendiz (Local)

Prediction 37.39%2.67fair odd
EV +1.32%
Edge +0.487%
Kelly +0.772%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 2.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.47%37.09%37.50%39.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.542.502.7143.48%39.40%40.00%36.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jaime Munguia (Visit)

Prediction 62.61%1.60fair odd
EV -2.32%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -4.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.96%62.91%62.50%65.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.411.491.501.5670.92%67.20%66.67%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jose Armando Resendiz (Local): 37.39%; Jaime Munguia (Visit): 62.61%. For Jose Armando Resendiz (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.67. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.71, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.32%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 34.70%EV +1.32%E +0.487%K +0.772%G +0.010%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.30%EV -9.84%E -6.83%K -22.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 03:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 34.70%EV +1.32%E +0.487%K +0.772%G +0.010%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.30%EV -9.84%E -6.83%K -22.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 03:10
NordicBet🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 34.47%EV +0.198%E +0.074%K +0.118%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.53%EV -11.72%E -8.31%K -28.58%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 02:29
Betsson🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 34.47%EV +0.198%E +0.074%K +0.118%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.53%EV -11.72%E -8.31%K -28.58%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 02:29
BetAnything🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -2.79%E -1.07%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.20%E -2.75%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-03 02:05
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.79%E -1.07%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.08%E -4.05%K -12.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-01 00:04
BetUS🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -6.53%E -2.61%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -2.32%E -1.49%K -4.15%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-03 01:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.53%E -2.61%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.08%E -4.05%K -12.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 03:05
BetRivers🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.53%E -2.61%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.08%E -4.05%K -12.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 20:00
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.53%E -2.61%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.08%E -4.05%K -12.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 23:00
Bally Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.53%E -2.61%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.08%E -4.05%K -12.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 20:00
betPARX🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.53%E -2.61%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.08%E -4.05%K -12.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 20:00
Bet Right🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -7.28%E -2.94%K -4.92%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -3.58%E -2.32%K -6.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 01:25
Betclic (FR)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.85%EV -9.15%E -3.76%K -6.40%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.15%EV -7.33%E -4.95%K -15.28%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 03:10
FanDuel🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.04%EV -9.52%E -3.93%K -6.71%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.96%EV -2.95%E -1.90%K -5.36%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-03 00:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.67%EV -14.01%E -6.09%K -10.78%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 61.33%EV -9.21%E -6.35%K -20.47%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-03 03:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 33.22%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.49%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.29%6.0%2026-05-03 03:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 33.22%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.49%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.29%6.0%2026-05-03 03:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 33.22%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.49%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.29%6.0%2026-05-03 03:10
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.04%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.51%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.45%8.0%2026-05-01 21:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.80%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.82%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%9.3%2026-05-02 23:00
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.89%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.74%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%9.4%2026-05-02 23:00
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.50%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.13%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%9.6%2026-05-01 21:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.50%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.13%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%9.6%2026-05-02 19:25
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.52%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.82%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.66%10.4%2026-05-02 20:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.52%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.82%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.66%10.4%2026-05-02 19:58
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.52%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.82%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.66%10.4%2026-05-02 20:00
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.52%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.82%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.66%10.4%2026-05-02 20:00
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.52%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.82%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.66%10.4%2026-05-02 20:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.52%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.82%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.66%10.4%2026-05-02 20:00
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.52%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.82%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.66%10.4%2026-05-02 20:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.52%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.82%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.66%10.4%2026-05-02 20:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.52%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.82%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.66%10.4%2026-05-02 20:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.52%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.82%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.66%10.4%2026-05-02 20:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.52%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.82%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.66%10.4%2026-05-02 20:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.52%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.82%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.66%10.4%2026-05-02 20:00
William Hill🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.63%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.96%11.8%2026-04-23 20:09