The School of Odds
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Jordan Orozco v Daniel Olea

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 22:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jordan Orozco (Local)

Prediction 93.80%1.07fair odd
EV -0.576%
Edge -0.544%
Kelly -9.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
89.96%93.80%94.39%94.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.021.011.0699.01%98.28%99.01%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Daniel Olea (Visit)

Prediction 6.20%16.12fair odd
EV +17.87%
Edge +0.941%
Kelly +0.993%
Growth +0.178%

assuming max odds 19.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.05%6.20%5.61%10.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.5015.9117.0019.0010.53%6.28%5.88%5.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jordan Orozco (Local): 93.80%; Daniel Olea (Visit): 6.20%. For Daniel Olea (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 16.12. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 19.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +17.87%.

15 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -5.27%E -5.21%K -526.60%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV +17.87%E +0.941%K +0.993%G +0.178%4.3%2026-03-21 21:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -5.27%E -5.21%K -526.60%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV +17.87%E +0.941%K +0.993%G +0.178%4.3%2026-03-21 21:49
BetRivers🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -5.27%E -5.21%K -526.60%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +5.47%E +0.322%K +0.342%G +0.019%4.9%2026-03-19 18:34
Bally Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -5.27%E -5.21%K -526.60%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +5.47%E +0.322%K +0.342%G +0.019%4.9%2026-03-19 18:34
betPARX🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -5.27%E -5.21%K -526.60%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +5.47%E +0.322%K +0.342%G +0.019%4.9%2026-03-19 18:34
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -5.27%E -5.21%K -526.60%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +5.47%E +0.322%K +0.342%G +0.019%4.9%2026-03-21 14:04
FanDuel🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.04%EV -4.33%E -4.24%K -216.40%G +0.000%11.80I 8.47%NM 7.96%EV -26.79%E -2.27%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 14:09
PlayUp🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -0.576%E -0.544%K -9.60%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -41.06%E -4.32%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-19 09:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (15)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.11%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.58%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.31%5.4%2026-03-21 18:24
Paddy Power🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.18%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.53%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.29%6.4%2026-03-19 09:54
Unibet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 90.76%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.74%7.0%2026-03-19 09:55
TABtouch🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 90.76%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.74%7.0%2026-03-19 09:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 90.76%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.74%7.0%2026-03-19 09:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 90.76%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.74%7.0%2026-03-19 09:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 90.76%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.74%7.0%2026-03-19 09:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 90.76%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.74%7.0%2026-03-19 09:55
LeoVegas🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 90.76%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.74%7.0%2026-03-19 09:55
Grosvenor🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 90.76%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.74%7.0%2026-03-19 09:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 90.76%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.74%7.0%2026-03-19 09:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 90.76%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.74%7.0%2026-03-19 09:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 90.76%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.74%7.0%2026-03-19 18:34
1xBet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 89.83%12.40I 8.06%NM 7.39%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.78%9.1%2026-03-21 21:40
888sport🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 84.21%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.93%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.87%12.0%2026-03-21 10:39