The School of Odds
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Jai Opetaia v Brandon Glanton

Kickoff: 2026-03-09 03:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jai Opetaia (Local)

Prediction 90.70%1.10fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -2.76%
Kelly -42.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
88.82%90.93%90.58%93.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.041.041.0798.04%95.91%96.15%93.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brandon Glanton (Visit)

Prediction 9.30%10.75fair odd
EV +39.51%
Edge +2.63%
Kelly +2.82%
Growth +1.11%

assuming max odds 15.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.37%9.07%9.42%11.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.5011.1810.0015.0011.76%8.94%10.00%6.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jai Opetaia (Local): 90.70%; Brandon Glanton (Visit): 9.30%. For Brandon Glanton (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.75. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 15.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +39.51%.

24 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -7.49%E -7.34%K -374.32%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +39.51%E +2.63%K +2.82%G +1.11%4.7%2026-03-09 02:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -7.49%E -7.34%K -374.32%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +39.51%E +2.63%K +2.82%G +1.11%4.7%2026-03-09 02:54
BetAnything🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -7.49%E -7.34%K -374.32%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +39.51%E +2.63%K +2.82%G +1.11%4.7%2026-03-09 02:54
Pinnacle🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 92.73%EV -5.67%E -5.45%K -141.81%G +0.000%13.27I 7.54%NM 7.27%EV +23.42%E +1.76%K +1.91%G +0.447%3.7%2026-03-09 01:20
BetUS🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -7.49%E -7.34%K -374.32%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV +20.91%E +1.61%K +1.74%G +0.364%5.7%2026-03-09 01:09
betPARX🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.77%E -4.54%K -95.31%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +2.30%E +0.210%K +0.230%G +0.005%4.3%2026-03-03 21:20
FanDuel🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 90.59%EV -3.86%E -3.64%K -64.31%G +0.000%10.20I 9.80%NM 9.41%EV -5.14%E -0.503%K -0.558%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-09 00:45
Bet Right🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.77%E -4.54%K -95.31%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -7.00%E -0.700%K -0.777%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-09 02:50
BetRivers🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.67%E -5.45%K -141.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -7.00%E -0.700%K -0.777%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-09 02:54
Bally Bet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.67%E -5.45%K -141.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -7.00%E -0.700%K -0.777%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-09 02:55
theScore Bet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.77%E -4.54%K -95.31%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -11.65%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-03 20:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 89.89%EV -5.67%E -5.45%K -141.81%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.11%EV -13.97%E -1.51%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-09 02:54
DraftKings🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -2.95%E -2.76%K -42.16%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -16.30%E -1.81%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-04 12:40
BetMGM🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -4.77%E -4.54%K -95.31%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -16.30%E -1.81%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-08 16:14
PlayUp🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -2.95%E -2.76%K -42.16%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -20.95%E -2.46%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-03 15:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (24)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.09I 91.74%NM 90.36%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.30%42.00I 2.38%NM 2.35%1.5%2026-03-09 02:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.09I 91.74%NM 90.01%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.27%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.73%1.9%2026-03-09 02:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.09I 91.74%NM 90.01%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.27%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.73%1.9%2026-03-09 02:50
SportsBet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.84%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.40%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.76%6.4%2026-03-08 20:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.81%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.46%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.72%7.4%2026-03-02 15:34
Unibet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.81%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.46%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.72%7.4%2026-03-02 15:34
ATG (SE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.81%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.46%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.72%7.4%2026-03-02 15:34
Svenska Spel🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.81%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.46%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.72%7.4%2026-03-02 15:34
Unibet (NL)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.81%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.46%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.72%7.4%2026-03-03 21:19
NordicBet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.97%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.32%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.71%7.7%2026-03-04 12:00
Betsson🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.97%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.32%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.71%7.7%2026-03-04 12:00
Paddy Power🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 87.61%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.71%8.7%2026-03-08 20:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 87.61%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.71%8.7%2026-03-08 20:35
TABtouch🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 86.07%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.80%9.6%2026-03-09 02:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 86.05%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.34%9.6%2026-03-08 16:14
Coral🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 86.05%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.34%9.6%2026-03-08 16:13
Betway🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.92%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.96%9.8%2026-03-08 11:49
Everygame🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.92%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.96%9.8%2026-03-09 02:19
LeoVegas🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.66%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.56%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.78%10.1%2026-03-09 02:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.66%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.56%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.78%10.1%2026-03-09 02:55
Grosvenor🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.66%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.56%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.78%10.1%2026-03-09 02:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.66%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.56%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.78%10.1%2026-03-09 02:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 85.55%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.46%18.00I 5.56%NM 4.99%11.3%2026-03-09 02:55
William Hill🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 84.53%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.20%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.27%11.6%2026-03-03 11:19