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Ishmael Davis v Bilal Fawaz

Kickoff: 2026-02-21 21:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ishmael Davis (Local)

Prediction 65.64%1.52fair odd
EV -1.54%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -3.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.41%65.47%65.48%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.441.441.5071.43%69.53%69.44%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bilal Fawaz (Visit)

Prediction 34.36%2.91fair odd
EV -2.07%
Edge -0.728%
Kelly -1.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.33%34.53%34.52%36.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.742.772.8538.46%36.50%36.04%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ishmael Davis (Local): 65.64%; Bilal Fawaz (Visit): 34.36%. For Ishmael Davis (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.52. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.50, with an expected value of -1.54%; they did not produce positive expected value.

25 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -1.54%E -1.03%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -10.66%E -4.10%K -6.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-20 05:35
Bovada🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -2.85%E -1.93%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -10.66%E -4.10%K -6.67%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-20 22:14
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.82%E -3.33%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.51%E -2.00%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-21 14:55
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.82%E -3.33%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.23%E -2.68%K -4.25%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 10:59
LowVig.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.81%EV -4.82%E -3.33%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.19%EV -8.26%E -3.09%K -4.95%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-21 14:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.81%EV -4.82%E -3.33%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.19%EV -8.26%E -3.09%K -4.95%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-21 14:45
BetUS🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.48%E -3.80%K -12.45%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.07%E -0.728%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.5%2026-02-21 08:54
Bet Right🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.48%E -3.80%K -12.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.79%E -1.35%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-21 19:55
BetMGM🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.48%E -3.80%K -12.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.23%E -2.68%K -4.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-20 20:31
DraftKings🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.13%E -4.29%K -14.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -3.79%E -1.35%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-20 05:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -6.13%E -4.29%K -14.27%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -7.23%E -2.68%K -4.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-21 19:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.79%E -4.78%K -16.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -3.79%E -1.35%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-20 19:40
BetRivers🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%EV -7.45%E -5.28%K -18.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -3.79%E -1.35%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-20 19:40
Bally Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%EV -7.45%E -5.28%K -18.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -3.79%E -1.35%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-20 19:40
betPARX🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%EV -7.45%E -5.28%K -18.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -3.79%E -1.35%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-20 19:40
FanDuel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -8.10%E -5.79%K -20.26%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -3.79%E -1.35%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-20 05:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (25)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 61.85%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.68%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.47%1.7%2026-02-21 20:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 61.86%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.70%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.44%2.3%2026-02-21 20:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 61.11%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.53%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.36%3.6%2026-02-21 20:35
SportsBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.26%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.31%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.43%8.3%2026-02-20 05:35
Betsson🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.41%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.03%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.56%8.9%2026-02-21 11:55
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.41%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.03%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.56%8.9%2026-02-21 11:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.12%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.83%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.05%9.1%2026-02-20 20:30
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.05%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.91%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.04%9.2%2026-02-20 20:31
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.77%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.08%9.7%2026-02-21 20:30
Unibet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.73%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.58%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.69%9.9%2026-02-20 19:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.73%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.58%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.69%9.9%2026-02-20 19:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.73%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.58%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.69%9.9%2026-02-20 19:40
1xBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.52%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.62%15.50I 6.45%NM 5.86%10.2%2026-02-21 16:15
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.33%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.42%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.25%10.2%2026-02-21 11:55
Grosvenor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.89%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.45%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.66%10.4%2026-02-20 19:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.89%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.45%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.66%10.4%2026-02-20 19:40
LeoVegas🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.89%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.45%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.66%10.4%2026-02-20 19:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.89%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.45%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.66%10.4%2026-02-20 19:40
TABtouch🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.89%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.45%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.66%10.4%2026-02-20 19:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.89%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.45%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.66%10.4%2026-02-20 19:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.89%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.45%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.66%10.4%2026-02-20 19:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.89%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.45%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.66%10.4%2026-02-20 19:40
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.76%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.99%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.25%12.0%2026-02-20 05:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.76%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.99%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.25%12.0%2026-02-20 05:35
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.25%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.92%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.84%12.5%2026-02-21 14:10