The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Imam Khatev v Padraig McCrory

Kickoff: 2026-10-09 00:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Imam Khatev (Local)

Prediction 90.91%1.10fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -2.55%
Kelly -38.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
86.74%90.48%90.75%92.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.031.051.041.0797.09%95.69%96.15%93.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Padraig McCrory (Visit)

Prediction 9.09%11.00fair odd
EV +16.91%
Edge +1.31%
Kelly +1.43%
Growth +0.241%

assuming max odds 12.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.48%9.52%9.25%13.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.0010.1610.5012.8614.29%9.84%9.52%7.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Imam Khatev (Local): 90.91%; Padraig McCrory (Visit): 9.09%. For Padraig McCrory (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.00. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.86, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.91%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 92.52%EV -5.45%E -5.24%K -136.36%G +0.000%12.86I 7.78%NM 7.48%EV +16.91%E +1.31%K +1.43%G +0.241%3.9%2026-10-05 10:46
DraftKings🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -6.36%E -6.18%K -212.11%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV +9.09%E +0.757%K +0.826%G +0.075%5.4%2026-10-05 15:10
Bet Right🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.45%E -5.24%K -136.36%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -0.003%E -0.000%K -0.000%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-05 15:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.45%E -5.24%K -136.36%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -0.003%E -0.000%K -0.000%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-05 13:10
LowVig.ag🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.45%E -5.24%K -136.36%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -0.003%E -0.000%K -0.000%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-05 13:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -6.36%E -6.18%K -212.11%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -9.09%E -0.909%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-05 15:10
theScore Bet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.55%E -4.33%K -90.90%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -13.64%E -1.44%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-05 15:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -5.45%E -5.24%K -136.36%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -13.64%E -1.44%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-05 15:10
BetUS🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.92%EV -2.73%E -2.55%K -38.96%G +0.000%7.79I 12.84%NM 12.08%EV -29.18%E -3.75%K -4.30%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-02 17:04
FanDuel🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -2.73%E -2.55%K -38.96%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -36.37%E -5.20%K -6.06%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-02 09:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
SportsBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.38%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.38%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.24%6.5%2026-10-02 09:50
Betway🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.29%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.33%9.9%2026-10-02 09:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.60%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.08%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.32%10.2%2026-10-05 14:35
Coral🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.60%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.08%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.32%10.2%2026-10-05 14:33
1xBet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 86.54%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.46%11.1%2026-10-02 09:50
Paddy Power🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 83.78%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.95%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.27%11.6%2026-10-02 09:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 83.78%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.95%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.27%11.6%2026-10-03 17:30
888sport🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 83.69%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.09%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.22%12.7%2026-10-05 13:09