Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grant Flores v Rashid Stevens

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 23:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

91%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grant Flores (Local)

Prediction 90.60%1.10fair odd

EV -1.24%

Edge -1.14%

Kelly -13.82%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

85.45%90.60%92.72%93.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.021.041.021.0998.04%96.39%98.04%91.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rashid Stevens (Visit)

Prediction 9.40%10.64fair odd

EV +40.98%

Edge +2.73%

Kelly +2.93%

Growth +1.20%

assuming max odds 15.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

6.37%9.40%7.28%14.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

6.4012.3514.0015.0015.63%8.10%7.14%6.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grant Flores (Local): 90.60%; Rashid Stevens (Visit): 9.40%. For Rashid Stevens (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.64. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 15.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +40.98%.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
LowVig.ag🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -7.59%E -7.44%K -379.32%G +0.000%	15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +40.98%E +2.73%K +2.93%G +1.20%	4.7%	2026-03-14 22:44
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -7.59%E -7.44%K -379.32%G +0.000%	15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +40.98%E +2.73%K +2.93%G +1.20%	4.7%	2026-03-14 22:45
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -7.59%E -7.44%K -379.32%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV +22.18%E +1.71%K +1.85%G +0.410%	5.7%	2026-03-14 22:50
FanDuel🎯	1.09I 91.74%NM 85.45%EV -1.24%E -1.14%K -13.82%G +0.000%	6.40I 15.63%NM 14.55%EV -39.85%E -6.23%K -7.38%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-03-14 22:15

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
SportsBet🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 83.59%	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%	23.00I 4.35%NM 4.03%	7.8%	2026-03-14 22:15
Paddy Power🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 83.25%	7.00I 14.29%NM 12.84%	23.00I 4.35%NM 3.91%	11.2%	2026-03-14 22:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 83.25%	7.00I 14.29%NM 12.84%	23.00I 4.35%NM 3.91%	11.2%	2026-03-14 22:15