The School of Odds
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Giorgio Visoli v Maxi Hughes

2026-10-24 16:00 UTC — Boxing

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Giorgio Visoli (Local)

Prediction 84.73%1.18fair odd
EV -5.95%
Edge -5.36%
Kelly -54.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.94%84.73%84.73%86.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.101.101.1190.91%90.70%90.91%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Maxi Hughes (Visit)

Prediction 15.27%6.55fair odd
EV +6.86%
Edge +0.980%
Kelly +1.14%
Growth +0.078%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.58%15.27%15.27%16.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.756.466.547.0017.39%15.48%15.28%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Giorgio Visoli (Local): 84.73%; Maxi Hughes (Visit): 15.27%. For Maxi Hughes (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.55. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 7.00, producing a positive expected value of +6.86%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.79%E -6.18%K -67.93%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +6.86%E +0.980%K +1.14%G +0.078%5.2%2026-09-02 16:10
BetUS🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.58%EV -5.95%E -5.36%K -54.05%G +0.000%6.59I 15.17%NM 14.42%EV +0.603%E +0.092%K +0.108%G +0.001%5.3%2026-09-02 16:00
theScore Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -6.79%E -6.18%K -67.93%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -0.771%E -0.119%K -0.140%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-02 21:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.94%EV -6.79%E -6.18%K -67.93%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.06%EV -12.22%E -2.13%K -2.57%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-02 15:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.15I 86.96%NM 81.59%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.66%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.75%6.6%2026-09-02 14:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.15I 86.96%NM 81.59%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.66%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.75%6.6%2026-09-02 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.15I 86.96%NM 81.59%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.66%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.75%6.6%2026-09-02 14:25
Unibet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.04%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.84%8.8%2026-09-02 14:20
TABtouch🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.04%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.84%8.8%2026-09-02 14:20
Grosvenor🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.04%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.84%8.8%2026-09-02 14:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.04%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.84%8.8%2026-09-02 15:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.04%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.84%8.8%2026-09-02 15:55