Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Francisco Daniel Veron v Raul Garcia

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 01:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

80%

20%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Francisco Daniel Veron (Local)

Prediction 79.65%1.26fair odd

EV -1.24%

Edge -0.999%

Kelly -5.16%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

77.54%79.65%78.57%82.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.141.201.201.2487.72%83.68%83.33%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Raul Garcia (Visit)

Prediction 20.35%4.91fair odd

EV +11.95%

Edge +2.17%

Kelly +2.65%

Growth +0.317%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

17.17%20.35%21.43%22.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.284.654.405.5023.36%21.53%22.73%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Francisco Daniel Veron (Local): 79.65%; Raul Garcia (Visit): 20.35%. For Raul Garcia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.91. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.95%.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -9.20%E -8.07%K -65.74%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV +11.95%E +2.17%K +2.65%G +0.317%	5.9%	2026-04-11 00:45
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.42%E -3.69%K -22.12%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -10.44%E -2.37%K -3.07%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-04-11 00:45
LowVig.ag🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.42%E -3.69%K -22.12%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -10.44%E -2.37%K -3.07%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-04-11 00:44
Pinnacle🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 77.54%EV -1.24%E -0.999%K -5.16%G +0.000%	4.28I 23.36%NM 22.46%EV -12.89%E -3.01%K -3.93%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-04-11 00:45

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 79.37%	5.16I 19.38%NM 17.84%	33.00I 3.03%NM 2.79%	8.6%	2026-04-11 00:45
Paddy Power🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 76.00%	4.50I 22.22%NM 19.76%	21.00I 4.76%NM 4.23%	12.5%	2026-04-11 00:32
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 76.00%	4.50I 22.22%NM 19.76%	21.00I 4.76%NM 4.23%	12.5%	2026-04-11 00:31