The School of Odds
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Emmanuel Buttigieg v Jake Goodwin

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 19:08 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Emmanuel Buttigieg (Local)

Prediction 90.89%1.10fair odd
EV -6.38%
Edge -6.20%
Kelly -212.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
90.58%90.89%90.66%91.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.031.031.031.0397.09%97.09%97.09%97.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jake Goodwin (Visit)

Prediction 9.11%10.98fair odd
EV +0.187%
Edge +0.017%
Kelly +0.019%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.56%9.11%9.34%9.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.9010.2210.0011.0010.10%9.78%10.00%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Emmanuel Buttigieg (Local): 90.89%; Jake Goodwin (Visit): 9.11%. For Jake Goodwin (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.98. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.187%.

6 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.38%E -6.20%K -212.70%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +0.187%E +0.017%K +0.019%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-21 19:04
Unibet (UK)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -6.38%E -6.20%K -212.70%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -8.92%E -0.892%K -0.991%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-21 19:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -6.38%E -6.20%K -212.70%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -8.92%E -0.892%K -0.991%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-21 18:59
FanDuel🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 90.58%EV -6.38%E -6.20%K -212.70%G +0.000%9.90I 10.10%NM 9.42%EV -9.83%E -0.993%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-21 19:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (6)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
SportsBet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.51%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.72%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.77%6.2%2026-03-21 19:04
Paddy Power🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 90.13%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.73%7.7%2026-03-21 19:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 90.13%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.73%7.7%2026-03-21 19:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 88.85%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.63%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.52%9.3%2026-03-21 19:04
Coral🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 88.85%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.63%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.52%9.3%2026-03-21 19:04
Betway🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 88.45%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.96%9.8%2026-03-21 18:59