The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Elliott Whale v Tom Hill

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 14:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Elliott Whale (Local)

Prediction 89.48%1.12fair odd
EV -1.57%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -15.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
85.99%89.79%89.48%92.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.031.061.061.1097.09%94.54%94.34%90.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tom Hill (Visit)

Prediction 10.52%9.51fair odd
EV +36.71%
Edge +2.82%
Kelly +3.06%
Growth +1.12%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.34%10.21%10.52%14.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.759.368.5013.0014.81%10.68%11.76%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Elliott Whale (Local): 89.48%; Tom Hill (Visit): 10.52%. For Tom Hill (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.51. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +36.71%.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -7.83%E -7.60%K -261.06%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +36.71%E +2.82%K +3.06%G +1.12%4.8%2026-04-11 14:14
BetOnline.ag🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -7.83%E -7.60%K -261.06%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +36.71%E +2.82%K +3.06%G +1.12%4.8%2026-04-11 14:15
Bet Right🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -5.15%E -4.86%K -85.79%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -0.095%E -0.010%K -0.011%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-11 14:15
DraftKings🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -5.15%E -4.86%K -85.79%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -0.095%E -0.010%K -0.011%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-11 14:15
BetUS🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -5.15%E -4.86%K -85.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -10.61%E -1.25%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 14:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -6.04%E -5.75%K -120.84%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -10.61%E -1.25%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 14:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -5.15%E -4.86%K -85.79%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -15.87%E -1.98%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 14:14
FanDuel🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -4.25%E -3.97%K -60.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -21.13%E -2.82%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 14:15
PlayUp🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -1.57%E -1.43%K -15.68%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -29.01%E -4.30%K -5.05%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-11 14:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
SportsBet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.46%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.96%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.58%7.4%2026-04-11 14:15
Betsson🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.67%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.71%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.63%7.8%2026-04-11 14:14
NordicBet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.67%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.71%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.63%7.8%2026-04-11 14:15
1xBet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.88%7.43I 13.46%NM 12.34%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.78%9.1%2026-04-11 14:15
Paddy Power🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.11%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.50%9.8%2026-04-11 14:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.11%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.50%9.8%2026-04-11 14:14
Betway🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.90%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.33%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.77%10.4%2026-04-11 14:14
888sport🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 79.48%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.61%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.91%11.3%2026-04-11 14:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 82.85%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.18%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.97%11.8%2026-04-11 14:14
Coral🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 82.85%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.18%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.97%11.8%2026-04-11 14:15