The School of Odds

Diego Pacheco v Immanuwel Aleem

Kickoff: 2026-07-19 02:40 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Diego Pacheco (Local)

Prediction 91.41%1.09fair odd
EV -4.02%
Edge -3.83%
Kelly -80.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
89.64%91.35%91.29%93.15%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.031.041.041.0597.09%96.49%96.15%95.24%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Immanuwel Aleem (Visit)

Prediction 8.59%11.64fair odd
EV +20.32%
Edge +1.45%
Kelly +1.56%
Growth +0.318%

assuming max odds 14.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.85%8.65%8.71%10.36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
9.0011.4311.0014.0011.11%8.75%9.09%7.14%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetUS1.03I 97.09%NM 93.15%EV -5.85%E -5.68%K -195.07%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.85%EV +20.32%E +1.45%K +1.56%G +0.318%4.2%2026-07-19 02:15
BetOnline.ag1.03I 97.09%NM 92.91%EV -5.85%E -5.68%K -195.07%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.09%EV +16.02%E +1.19%K +1.28%G +0.205%4.5%2026-07-19 02:10
LowVig.ag1.03I 97.09%NM 92.91%EV -5.85%E -5.68%K -195.07%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.09%EV +16.02%E +1.19%K +1.28%G +0.205%4.5%2026-07-19 02:10
FanDuel1.04I 96.15%NM 92.80%EV -4.94%E -4.75%K -123.45%G +0.000%13.40I 7.46%NM 7.20%EV +15.16%E +1.13%K +1.22%G +0.185%3.6%2026-07-19 01:05
DraftKings1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.02%E -3.83%K -80.48%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -5.46%E -0.497%K -0.546%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-16 08:40
Bet Right1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -4.94%E -4.75%K -123.45%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -5.46%E -0.497%K -0.546%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-17 17:44
BetAnything1.03I 97.09%NM 91.29%EV -5.85%E -5.68%K -195.07%G +0.000%10.80I 9.26%NM 8.71%EV -7.18%E -0.665%K -0.733%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-19 02:10
PlayUp1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -4.94%E -4.75%K -123.45%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -14.06%E -1.41%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-08 03:00
Betr (AU)1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -5.85%E -5.68%K -195.07%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -14.06%E -1.41%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-17 17:54
Unibet (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -4.94%E -4.75%K -123.45%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -18.35%E -1.93%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-19 02:10
BetMGM1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -4.94%E -4.75%K -123.45%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -22.65%E -2.52%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-16 15:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Paddy Power1.05I 95.24%NM 89.19%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.20%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.60%6.8%2026-07-17 13:59
SportsBet1.05I 95.24%NM 89.19%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.20%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.60%6.8%2026-07-17 13:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.05I 95.24%NM 89.19%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.20%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.60%6.8%2026-07-18 22:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.08I 92.59%NM 85.54%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.26%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.20%8.2%2026-07-19 02:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.08I 92.59%NM 85.54%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.26%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.20%8.2%2026-07-19 02:35
Ladbrokes (AU)1.05I 95.24%NM 87.31%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.53%9.1%2026-07-07 11:20
Coral1.05I 95.24%NM 87.31%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.53%9.1%2026-07-07 11:20
Everygame1.03I 97.09%NM 88.11%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.56%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.32%10.2%2026-07-16 06:34
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.08I 92.59%NM 83.33%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%13.50I 7.41%NM 6.67%11.1%2026-07-19 02:35