The School of Odds
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David Morrell v Zak Chelli

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 19:28 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

David Morrell (Local)

Prediction 89.84%1.11fair odd
EV -5.67%
Edge -5.40%
Kelly -113.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
88.89%90.58%89.84%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.041.041.0598.04%96.46%96.15%95.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Zak Chelli (Visit)

Prediction 10.16%9.84fair odd
EV +72.70%
Edge +4.28%
Kelly +4.54%
Growth +3.30%

assuming max odds 17.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.66%9.42%10.16%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.4011.179.5017.0011.90%8.95%10.53%5.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: David Morrell (Local): 89.84%; Zak Chelli (Visit): 10.16%. For Zak Chelli (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.84. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 17.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +72.70%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -8.36%E -8.20%K -418.11%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +72.70%E +4.28%K +4.54%G +3.30%3.9%2026-05-09 19:24
BetOnline.ag🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -8.36%E -8.20%K -418.11%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +72.70%E +4.28%K +4.54%G +3.30%3.9%2026-05-09 19:25
BetUS🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -8.36%E -8.20%K -418.11%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV +32.07%E +2.47%K +2.67%G +0.857%5.7%2026-05-09 19:24
Pinnacle🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 92.51%EV -6.57%E -6.31%K -164.14%G +0.000%12.84I 7.79%NM 7.49%EV +30.44%E +2.37%K +2.57%G +0.783%3.9%2026-05-09 19:25
Bovada🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -6.57%E -6.31%K -164.14%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +11.75%E +1.07%K +1.18%G +0.138%5.2%2026-05-09 19:24
DraftKings🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.67%E -5.40%K -113.34%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -3.49%E -0.367%K -0.410%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-09 19:24
theScore Bet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.67%E -5.40%K -113.34%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -3.49%E -0.367%K -0.410%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-09 19:24
Unibet (UK)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -5.67%E -5.40%K -113.34%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -8.57%E -0.952%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 19:13
BetMGM🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -6.57%E -6.31%K -164.14%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -8.57%E -0.952%K -1.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 19:24
Betsson🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 89.63%EV -7.46%E -7.25%K -248.80%G +0.000%8.90I 11.24%NM 10.37%EV -9.58%E -1.08%K -1.21%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-09 19:25
NordicBet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 89.63%EV -7.46%E -7.25%K -248.80%G +0.000%8.90I 11.24%NM 10.37%EV -9.58%E -1.08%K -1.21%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-09 19:24
FanDuel🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.89%EV -5.67%E -5.40%K -113.34%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.11%EV -14.66%E -1.75%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-09 19:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.03I 97.09%NM 94.96%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.26%55.00I 1.82%NM 1.78%2.2%2026-05-09 19:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.03I 97.09%NM 94.96%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.26%55.00I 1.82%NM 1.78%2.2%2026-05-09 19:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.03I 97.09%NM 93.36%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.21%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.43%4.0%2026-05-09 19:25
SportsBet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.27%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.14%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.60%6.9%2026-05-09 19:24
Paddy Power🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.94%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.59%7.3%2026-05-09 19:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.94%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.59%7.3%2026-05-09 19:24
Virgin Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.09%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.44%7.3%2026-05-09 19:24
LeoVegas🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.09%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.44%7.3%2026-05-09 19:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.09%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.44%7.3%2026-05-09 19:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.09%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.44%7.3%2026-05-09 19:24
Grosvenor🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.09%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.44%7.3%2026-05-09 19:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.09%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.44%7.3%2026-05-09 19:25
Unibet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.09%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.44%7.3%2026-05-09 19:24
TABtouch🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.09%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.44%7.3%2026-05-09 19:24
ATG (SE)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.09%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.44%7.3%2026-05-09 19:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.09%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.44%7.3%2026-05-09 19:24
Coral🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 87.31%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.53%9.1%2026-05-09 19:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 87.31%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.53%9.1%2026-05-09 19:24
Betway🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 86.05%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.34%9.6%2026-05-09 19:25
William Hill🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 84.53%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.20%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.27%11.6%2026-05-09 19:24
888sport🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 85.30%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.43%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.27%11.6%2026-05-09 19:24