The School of Odds
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Daniel Blancas v Sergio Rio Jimenez

Kickoff: 2026-09-20 01:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Daniel Blancas (Local)

Prediction 91.51%1.09fair odd
EV -4.83%
Edge -4.65%
Kelly -120.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
90.83%92.06%91.51%94.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.021.021.0499.01%98.14%98.52%96.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sergio Rio Jimenez (Visit)

Prediction 8.49%11.78fair odd
EV +44.36%
Edge +2.61%
Kelly +2.77%
Growth +1.23%

assuming max odds 17.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.61%7.94%8.49%9.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0013.0212.1017.0010.00%7.68%8.26%5.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Daniel Blancas (Local): 91.51%; Sergio Rio Jimenez (Visit): 8.49%. For Sergio Rio Jimenez (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.78. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 17.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +44.36%.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -7.58%E -7.50%K -757.68%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +44.36%E +2.61%K +2.77%G +1.23%4.9%2026-09-19 22:59
LowVig.ag🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -7.58%E -7.50%K -757.68%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +44.36%E +2.61%K +2.77%G +1.23%4.9%2026-09-19 22:59
Bovada🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -7.58%E -7.50%K -757.68%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV +35.87%E +2.24%K +2.39%G +0.858%5.3%2026-09-20 01:08
Bet Right🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -6.66%E -6.53%K -333.09%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV +18.89%E +1.35%K +1.45%G +0.274%5.2%2026-09-20 01:14
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 92.59%EV -4.83%E -4.65%K -120.79%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV +10.39%E +0.800%K +0.866%G +0.090%3.8%2026-09-15 23:25
FanDuel🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 91.58%EV -5.75%E -5.58%K -191.56%G +0.000%11.20I 8.93%NM 8.42%EV -4.89%E -0.437%K -0.479%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-19 14:01
DraftKings🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.75%E -5.58%K -191.56%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -6.59%E -0.599%K -0.659%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-19 14:01
Betr (AU)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -6.66%E -6.53%K -333.09%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -6.59%E -0.599%K -0.659%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 01:08
NordicBet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 90.83%EV -7.58%E -7.50%K -757.68%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -15.08%E -1.51%K -1.68%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-15 18:34
Betsson🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 90.83%EV -7.58%E -7.50%K -757.68%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -15.08%E -1.51%K -1.68%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-15 18:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
SportsBet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 91.59%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.60%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.80%5.0%2026-09-19 14:01
Grosvenor🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.67%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.43%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.89%7.6%2026-09-15 14:50
TABtouch🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.67%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.43%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.89%7.6%2026-09-15 14:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.67%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.43%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.89%7.6%2026-09-15 14:50
Unibet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.67%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.43%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.89%7.6%2026-09-15 14:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.67%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.43%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.89%7.6%2026-09-15 14:50
1xBet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 89.49%13.50I 7.41%NM 6.83%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.69%8.5%2026-09-19 22:55
Paddy Power🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 89.92%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.55%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.53%9.0%2026-09-19 14:01