The School of Odds
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Dalton Smith v Alberto Puello

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 20:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dalton Smith (Local)

Prediction 63.47%1.58fair odd
EV -2.89%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -5.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.03%63.35%63.41%64.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.481.501.5369.93%67.37%66.89%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alberto Puello (Visit)

Prediction 36.53%2.74fair odd
EV -3.19%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -1.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.66%36.65%36.59%37.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.552.582.6542.55%39.18%38.76%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dalton Smith (Local): 63.47%; Alberto Puello (Visit): 36.53%. For Dalton Smith (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.58. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.53, with an expected value of -2.89%; they did not produce positive expected value.

11 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.89%E -1.89%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.67%E -3.47%K -5.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-22 23:05
Bet Right🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.89%E -1.89%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.67%E -3.47%K -5.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-24 19:30
Pinnacle🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.53%EV -4.16%E -2.76%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.47%EV -3.92%E -1.49%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-24 20:05
theScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.80%E -3.20%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.02%E -1.93%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-21 19:34
BetMGM🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.80%E -3.20%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.02%E -1.93%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 11:44
BetUS🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.80%E -3.20%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.67%E -3.47%K -5.78%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 19:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -4.80%E -3.20%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -10.50%E -4.28%K -7.24%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 20:01
LowVig.ag🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -5.43%E -3.65%K -11.09%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -3.19%E -1.20%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-24 20:11
BetOnline.ag🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -5.43%E -3.65%K -11.09%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -3.19%E -1.20%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-24 20:11
FanDuel🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.23%EV -6.70%E -4.56%K -14.26%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.77%EV -3.55%E -1.35%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-24 18:48
Unibet (UK)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -6.70%E -4.56%K -14.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -8.67%E -3.47%K -5.78%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-24 19:25
Betsson🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.34%EV -9.24%E -6.46%K -21.49%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.66%EV -5.75%E -2.23%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 20:11
NordicBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.34%EV -9.24%E -6.46%K -21.49%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.66%EV -5.75%E -2.23%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 20:11
Winamax (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.17%EV -9.24%E -6.46%K -21.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.83%EV -14.15%E -6.02%K -10.48%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-24 19:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (11)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.37%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.31%18.50I 5.41%NM 5.33%1.5%2026-10-24 20:11
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.37%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.31%18.50I 5.41%NM 5.33%1.5%2026-10-24 20:11
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 61.85%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.04%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.11%2.3%2026-10-24 20:11
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.74%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.47%7.6%2026-10-24 11:44
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.74%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.47%7.6%2026-10-24 11:45
1xBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.38%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.66%15.50I 6.45%NM 5.96%8.2%2026-10-13 07:59
SportsBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.52%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.07%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.41%8.7%2026-10-24 14:45
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.83%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.80%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%9.6%2026-10-24 14:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.83%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.80%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%9.6%2026-10-24 14:44
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.77%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.08%9.7%2026-10-24 19:30
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.21%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.47%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.31%10.7%2026-10-24 13:40