The School of Odds
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Dalton Smith v Alberto Puello

2026-10-24 18:00 UTC — Boxing

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dalton Smith (Local)

Prediction 61.15%1.64fair odd
EV -4.60%
Edge -2.95%
Kelly -8.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.56%61.39%61.15%62.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.461.531.541.5668.49%65.48%64.94%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alberto Puello (Visit)

Prediction 38.85%2.57fair odd
EV -0.941%
Edge -0.369%
Kelly -0.607%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.47%38.61%38.85%40.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.422.432.5546.51%41.40%41.15%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Dalton Smith (Local): 61.15%; Alberto Puello (Visit): 38.85%. For Alberto Puello (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.57. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.55, with an expected value of -0.941%; they do not produce positive expected value.

7 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.60%E -2.95%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -4.83%E -1.97%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-04 17:04
BetUS1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -5.82%E -3.78%K -10.79%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -0.941%E -0.369%K -0.607%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-04 17:04
LowVig.ag1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%EV -5.82%E -3.78%K -10.79%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -5.60%E -2.31%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-04 17:04
BetOnline.ag1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%EV -5.82%E -3.78%K -10.79%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -5.60%E -2.31%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-04 17:04
Unibet (UK)1.54I 64.94%NM 60.71%EV -5.82%E -3.78%K -10.79%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -7.54%E -3.17%K -5.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-04 17:05
FanDuel1.51I 66.23%NM 62.53%EV -7.66%E -5.07%K -15.02%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.47%EV -2.11%E -0.836%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-04 17:04
Winamax (FR)1.46I 68.49%NM 59.56%EV -10.72%E -7.34%K -23.30%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.44%EV -16.48%E -7.66%K -14.33%G +0.000%15.0%2026-08-04 17:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (7)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet1.56I 64.10%NM 58.18%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.04%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.78%10.2%2026-08-04 17:04
Grosvenor1.56I 64.10%NM 58.18%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.04%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.78%10.2%2026-08-04 17:04
TABtouch1.56I 64.10%NM 58.18%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.04%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.78%10.2%2026-08-04 17:05
PMU (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 58.18%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.04%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.78%10.2%2026-08-04 17:34
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.01I 99.01%NM 48.74%1.01I 99.01%NM 48.74%19.50I 5.13%NM 2.52%103.1%2026-08-04 17:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.01I 99.01%NM 48.74%1.01I 99.01%NM 48.74%19.50I 5.13%NM 2.52%103.1%2026-08-04 17:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.01I 99.01%NM 48.74%1.01I 99.01%NM 48.74%19.50I 5.13%NM 2.52%103.1%2026-08-04 17:05