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Cristian Cangelosi v Miguel Angel Hernandez
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Cristian Cangelosi (Local)
assuming max odds 1.33
Miguel Angel Hernandez (Visit)
assuming max odds 4.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cristian Cangelosi (Local): 75.20%; Miguel Angel Hernandez (Visit): 24.80%. For Cristian Cangelosi (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.3298. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.3300, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.014%.
13 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.77%EV +0.014%E +0.010%K +0.042%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.23%EV -20.14%E -6.25%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-28 02:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.77%EV +0.014%E +0.010%K +0.042%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.23%EV -20.14%E -6.25%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-28 02:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.25%E -4.17%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -4.51%E -1.17%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-27 02:24 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.00%E -4.80%K -24.01%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.794%E -0.198%K -0.265%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-27 02:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.00%E -4.80%K -24.01%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.794%E -0.198%K -0.265%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-27 02:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.00%E -4.80%K -24.01%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -6.99%E -1.87%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-27 02:24 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -6.00%E -4.80%K -24.01%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -8.23%E -2.23%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-28 03:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -6.75%E -5.45%K -28.14%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -5.75%E -1.51%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-27 12:04 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (13)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.33% | 3.87I 25.84%NM 23.87% | 33.00I 3.03%NM 2.80% | 8.2% | 2026-03-27 02:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.51% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.43% | 8.4% | 2026-03-27 02:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.36% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.08% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.56% | 9.7% | 2026-03-27 02:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.36% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.08% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.56% | 9.7% | 2026-03-27 02:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.36% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.08% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.56% | 9.7% | 2026-03-27 02:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.36% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.08% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.56% | 9.7% | 2026-03-27 02:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.36% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.08% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.56% | 9.7% | 2026-03-27 02:24 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.36% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.08% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.56% | 9.7% | 2026-03-27 02:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.36% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.08% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.56% | 9.7% | 2026-03-27 02:24 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.36% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.08% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.56% | 9.7% | 2026-03-27 02:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.36% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.08% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.56% | 9.7% | 2026-03-27 02:24 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.36% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.08% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.56% | 9.7% | 2026-03-27 02:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.08% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.69% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.23% | 12.5% | 2026-03-27 02:25 |