The School of Odds
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Craig Richards v Radivoje Kalajdzic

2026-09-26 20:00 UTC — Boxing

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Craig Richards (Local)

Prediction 42.31%2.36fair odd
EV +2.39%
Edge +0.989%
Kelly +1.69%
Growth +0.040%

assuming max odds 2.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.04%41.96%42.21%43.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.242.202.4246.51%44.67%45.45%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Radivoje Kalajdzic (Visit)

Prediction 57.69%1.73fair odd
EV -3.66%
Edge -2.19%
Kelly -5.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.51%58.04%57.79%60.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.621.621.6764.52%61.69%61.73%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Craig Richards (Local): 42.31%; Radivoje Kalajdzic (Visit): 57.69%. For Craig Richards (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.36. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.42, producing a positive expected value of +2.39%.

7 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.04%EV +2.39%E +0.989%K +1.69%G +0.040%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.96%EV -10.58%E -6.83%K -19.24%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-08 11:13
BetUS🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -0.992%E -0.424%K -0.740%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -7.12%E -4.42%K -11.67%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-08 11:10
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.80%E -2.13%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.81%E -2.92%K -7.41%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-08 11:10
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.80%E -2.13%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.54%E -4.04%K -10.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-08 11:10
NordicBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.92%E -3.14%K -5.76%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.70%E -4.81%K -12.83%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-08 11:10
Betsson🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.92%E -3.14%K -5.76%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.70%E -4.81%K -12.83%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-08 11:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.49%EV -8.18%E -3.77%K -7.00%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -3.66%E -2.19%K -5.46%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-08 11:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.49%EV -8.18%E -3.77%K -7.00%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -3.66%E -2.19%K -5.46%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-08 11:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -9.03%E -4.20%K -7.85%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -6.54%E -4.04%K -10.55%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-08 11:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (7)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.40%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.78%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.82%7.4%2026-09-08 11:10
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.50%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.13%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%9.6%2026-09-08 11:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.33%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.33%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.34%10.2%2026-09-08 11:10
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.33%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.33%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.34%10.2%2026-09-08 11:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.02I 98.04%NM 33.44%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.44%1.03I 97.09%NM 33.12%193.2%2026-09-08 11:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.02I 98.04%NM 33.44%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.44%1.03I 97.09%NM 33.12%193.2%2026-09-08 11:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.02I 98.04%NM 33.44%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.44%1.03I 97.09%NM 33.12%193.2%2026-09-08 11:10