The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Craig Richards v Radivoje Kalajdzic

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 20:55 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Craig Richards (Local)

Prediction 47.80%2.09fair odd
EV -4.41%
Edge -2.20%
Kelly -4.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.24%47.71%47.61%48.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.911.961.972.0052.36%51.02%50.76%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Radivoje Kalajdzic (Visit)

Prediction 52.20%1.92fair odd
EV -3.42%
Edge -1.85%
Kelly -4.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.06%52.29%52.39%53.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.801.801.8558.14%55.69%55.56%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Craig Richards (Local): 47.80%; Radivoje Kalajdzic (Visit): 52.20%. For Radivoje Kalajdzic (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.92. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.85, with an expected value of -3.42%; they did not produce positive expected value.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.41%E -2.20%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.03%E -3.35%K -7.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-25 11:24
NordicBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -4.41%E -2.20%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -10.21%E -5.94%K -14.18%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-25 01:45
Betsson🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -4.41%E -2.20%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -10.21%E -5.94%K -14.18%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-25 02:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.61%EV -5.84%E -2.97%K -6.02%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.39%EV -6.55%E -3.66%K -8.30%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-26 19:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.61%EV -5.84%E -2.97%K -6.02%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.39%EV -6.55%E -3.66%K -8.30%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-26 19:45
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -6.80%E -3.49%K -7.16%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.47%E -2.44%K -5.38%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-26 11:45
FanDuel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -7.75%E -4.02%K -8.34%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -3.42%E -1.85%K -4.03%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-26 18:44
BetAnything🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -8.71%E -4.56%K -9.57%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.47%E -2.44%K -5.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-26 19:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -8.71%E -4.56%K -9.57%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.47%E -2.44%K -5.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-26 08:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 46.69%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.60%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.71%3.0%2026-09-26 20:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 46.69%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.60%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.71%3.0%2026-09-26 20:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 46.43%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.34%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.23%3.5%2026-09-26 20:30
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.31%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.24%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.45%8.0%2026-09-26 13:10
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.19%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.37%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.43%8.2%2026-09-26 13:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.19%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.37%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.43%8.2%2026-09-26 18:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.02%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.11%9.0%2026-09-26 16:30
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.02%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.11%9.0%2026-09-26 16:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.36%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.58%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.06%10.0%2026-09-26 08:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.36%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.58%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.06%10.0%2026-09-26 08:15
Unibet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.36%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.58%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.06%10.0%2026-09-26 08:15
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.49%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.46%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.04%10.3%2026-09-26 10:40
Grosvenor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.49%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.46%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.04%10.3%2026-09-26 08:15
TABtouch🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.49%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.46%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.04%10.3%2026-09-26 08:15
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.34%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.34%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.32%10.6%2026-09-25 09:19
1xBet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.65%1.79I 55.87%NM 50.23%14.70I 6.80%NM 6.12%11.2%2026-09-26 12:43