The School of Odds
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Canelo Álvarez v Christian Mbilli

Kickoff: 2026-10-31 21:55 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Canelo Álvarez (Local)

Prediction 72.83%1.37fair odd
EV -3.14%
Edge -2.36%
Kelly -9.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.61%72.46%73.06%73.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.311.311.3378.13%76.54%76.63%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Christian Mbilli (Visit)

Prediction 27.17%3.68fair odd
EV -0.830%
Edge -0.227%
Kelly -0.313%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.38%27.54%26.94%30.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.453.503.6533.33%28.95%28.57%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Canelo Álvarez (Local): 72.83%; Christian Mbilli (Visit): 27.17%. For Christian Mbilli (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.68. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.65, with an expected value of -0.830%; they did not produce positive expected value.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.14%E -2.36%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -7.62%E -2.24%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-31 19:45
Pinnacle🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 73.44%EV -3.86%E -2.93%K -12.08%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%EV -0.830%E -0.227%K -0.313%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-31 21:05
Bovada🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 73.44%EV -3.86%E -2.93%K -12.08%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%EV -0.830%E -0.227%K -0.313%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-31 21:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 73.06%EV -3.86%E -2.93%K -12.08%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.94%EV -2.73%E -0.763%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-31 21:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 73.06%EV -3.86%E -2.93%K -12.08%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.94%EV -2.73%E -0.763%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-31 21:44
BetUS🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%EV -3.86%E -2.93%K -12.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -15.77%E -5.09%K -7.51%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-31 21:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 69.61%EV -4.59%E -3.51%K -14.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -18.49%E -6.16%K -9.25%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-31 08:14
DraftKings🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.32%E -4.09%K -17.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.91%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-27 09:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.32%E -4.09%K -17.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.62%E -2.24%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-28 01:29
PlayUp🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.32%E -4.09%K -17.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -10.34%E -3.13%K -4.50%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-26 20:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -6.05%E -4.69%K -20.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -2.19%E -0.608%K -0.842%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-30 17:54
Bet Right🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -6.05%E -4.69%K -20.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -2.19%E -0.608%K -0.842%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-31 20:40
BetMGM🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.05%E -4.69%K -20.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -4.91%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-31 21:45
FanDuel🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -6.78%E -5.29%K -24.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -4.91%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-31 18:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.41I 70.92%NM 69.77%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.55%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.68%1.7%2026-10-31 21:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.41I 70.92%NM 69.77%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.55%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.68%1.7%2026-10-31 21:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.40I 71.43%NM 69.75%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.36%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.88%2.4%2026-10-31 21:50
SportsBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.56%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.44%8.1%2026-10-31 06:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%8.5%2026-10-31 21:45
Coral🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%8.5%2026-10-31 21:40
TABtouch🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.95%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.79%10.0%2026-10-27 19:30
Unibet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.95%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.79%10.0%2026-10-27 19:30
Grosvenor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.95%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.79%10.0%2026-10-27 19:29
PMU (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.95%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.79%10.0%2026-10-27 19:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.95%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.79%10.0%2026-10-27 19:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.95%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.79%10.0%2026-10-27 19:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.95%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.79%10.0%2026-10-27 19:30
Betway🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.09%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.04%10.4%2026-10-31 10:55
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.56%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.32%10.6%2026-10-31 06:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.56%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.32%10.6%2026-10-31 06:15
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.26%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.01%11.0%2026-10-27 16:05