Canelo Álvarez v Christian Mbilli

2026-10-31 22:00 UTC — Boxing

Head to Head

1 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

71%

29%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Canelo Álvarez (Local)

Prediction 71.27%1.40fair odd

EV -5.21%

Edge -3.91%

Kelly -15.77%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

71.27%71.27%71.27%71.27%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.331.331.331.3375%75%75%75%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Christian Mbilli (Visit)

Prediction 28.73%3.48fair odd

EV -5.21%

Edge -1.58%

Kelly -2.26%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

28.73%28.73%28.73%28.73%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

3.303.303.303.3030%30%30%30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.21%E -3.91%K -15.77%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.21%E -1.58%K -2.26%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-16 08:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.