The School of Odds
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Canelo Álvarez v Christian Mbilli

2026-10-31 22:00 UTC — Boxing

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Canelo Álvarez (Local)

Prediction 72.18%1.39fair odd
EV -1.12%
Edge -0.816%
Kelly -3.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.81%72.18%72.19%73.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.331.331.3777.52%75.08%75.19%72.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Christian Mbilli (Visit)

Prediction 27.82%3.59fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -0.748%
Kelly -1.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.93%27.82%27.81%31.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.273.303.5033.33%30.58%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Canelo Álvarez (Local): 72.18%; Christian Mbilli (Visit): 27.82%. For Canelo Álvarez (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.39. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.37, with an expected value of -1.12%; they do not produce positive expected value.

8 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -1.12%E -0.816%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -12.36%E -3.92%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-29 13:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -1.84%E -1.35%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -16.53%E -5.51%K -8.27%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-24 12:54
DraftKings🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.01%E -3.01%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -8.18%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-16 08:20
theScore Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -5.45%E -4.16%K -17.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -5.40%E -1.59%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-04 04:10
FanDuel🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.89%E -5.34%K -23.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -2.62%E -0.748%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-29 15:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (8)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
TABtouch🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.57%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.67%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.76%10.5%2026-07-23 20:35
Unibet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.57%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.67%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.76%10.5%2026-07-23 20:40
Grosvenor🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.57%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.67%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.76%10.5%2026-07-23 20:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.57%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.67%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.76%10.5%2026-07-28 20:34
Betway🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.39%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.69%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.93%12.5%2026-08-03 14:44
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 40.85%1.01I 99.01%NM 55.42%15.00I 6.67%NM 3.73%78.7%2026-08-02 21:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 40.85%1.01I 99.01%NM 55.42%15.00I 6.67%NM 3.73%78.7%2026-08-02 21:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 40.85%1.01I 99.01%NM 55.42%15.00I 6.67%NM 3.73%78.7%2026-08-02 21:30