The School of Odds

Canelo Álvarez v Christian Mbilli

2026-09-12 22:00 UTC — Boxing

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Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Canelo Álvarez (Local)

Prediction 71.50%1.40fair odd
EV -4.90%
Edge -3.69%
Kelly -14.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.96%71.50%71.43%71.90%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.271.311.311.3379%77%76%75%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Christian Mbilli (Visit)

Prediction 28.50%3.51fair odd
EV -5.95%
Edge -1.80%
Kelly -2.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.10%28.50%28.57%29.04%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.203.273.273.3031%31%31%30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

7 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.90%E -3.69%K -14.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.95%E -1.80%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-06 11:14
theScore Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.90%E -3.69%K -14.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.95%E -1.80%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-03 14:19
BetUS1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.90%E -3.69%K -14.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.38%E -2.27%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-25 12:30
FanDuel1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.33%E -4.84%K -20.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -5.95%E -1.80%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-04 14:58
Unibet (UK)1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.05%E -5.42%K -23.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.80%E -2.75%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-01 14:48
Betclic (FR)1.28I 78.13%NM 71.87%EV -8.48%E -6.62%K -30.29%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.13%EV -6.81%E -2.08%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-01 14:49
Winamax (FR)1.27I 78.74%NM 71.90%EV -9.19%E -7.24%K -34.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.10%EV -7.38%E -2.27%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.5%2026-06-02 19:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (7)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet1.37I 72.99%NM 69.84%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.26%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.90%4.5%2026-06-28 19:08
888sport1.40I 71.43%NM 65.43%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.63%9.2%2026-06-28 01:59
Ladbrokes (AU)1.33I 75.19%NM 68.58%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%9.6%2026-06-05 12:09
Coral1.33I 75.19%NM 68.58%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%9.6%2026-06-05 12:09
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.02I 98.04%NM 52.98%2.36I 42.37%NM 22.90%2.24I 44.64%NM 24.12%85.1%2026-06-23 23:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.02I 98.04%NM 52.98%2.36I 42.37%NM 22.90%2.24I 44.64%NM 24.12%85.1%2026-06-23 23:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.02I 98.04%NM 52.98%2.36I 42.37%NM 22.90%2.24I 44.64%NM 24.12%85.1%2026-06-23 23:20