Language:English
Canelo Álvarez v Christian Mbilli
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Canelo Álvarez (Local)
assuming max odds 1.33
Christian Mbilli (Visit)
assuming max odds 3.30
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Canelo Álvarez (Local): 71.50%; Christian Mbilli (Visit): 28.50%. For Canelo Álvarez (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.40. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.33, with an expected value of -4.90%; they did not produce positive expected value.
7 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.90%E -3.69%K -14.86%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.95%E -1.80%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-06 11:14 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.90%E -3.69%K -14.86%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.95%E -1.80%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-03 14:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.90%E -3.69%K -14.86%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.38%E -2.27%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-25 12:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.33%E -4.84%K -20.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -5.95%E -1.80%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-04 14:58 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.05%E -5.42%K -23.50%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.80%E -2.75%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-01 14:48 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.87%EV -8.48%E -6.62%K -30.29%G +0.000% | 3.27I 30.58%NM 28.13%EV -6.81%E -2.08%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-06-01 14:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.90%EV -9.19%E -7.24%K -34.06%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.10%EV -7.38%E -2.27%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-06-02 19:00 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (7)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.84% | 3.51I 28.49%NM 27.26% | 33.00I 3.03%NM 2.90% | 4.5% | 2026-06-28 19:08 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.43% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.63% | 9.2% | 2026-06-28 01:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.58% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37% | 9.6% | 2026-06-05 12:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.58% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37% | 9.6% | 2026-06-05 12:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.02I 98.04%NM 52.98% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 22.90% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 24.12% | 85.1% | 2026-06-23 23:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.02I 98.04%NM 52.98% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 22.90% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 24.12% | 85.1% | 2026-06-23 23:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.02I 98.04%NM 52.98% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 22.90% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 24.12% | 85.1% | 2026-06-23 23:20 |