The School of OddsCanelo Álvarez v Christian Mbilli
Head to Head
7 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Option 1: Canelo Álvarez (Local)
Odds
1.2778.74%Min
1.3176.48%Mean
1.3176.05%Median
1.3375.19%Max
Consensus probabilities
71.11%1.406Min
71.90%1.391Max
71.39%1.401Mean
71.27%1.403Median
71.27%1.403IQM
71.36%1.401Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.33 under the IQM model: 71.27%
EV -5.21%Edge -3.91%Kelly -15.77%Growth +0.000%
Option 2: Christian Mbilli (Visit)
Odds
3.2031.25%Min
3.2630.65%Mean
3.2730.53%Median
3.3030.30%Max
Consensus probabilities
28.10%3.559Min
28.89%3.462Max
28.61%3.495Mean
28.73%3.481Median
28.73%3.481IQM
28.64%3.491Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 3.30 under the IQM model: 28.73%
EV -5.21%Edge -1.58%Kelly -2.26%Growth +0.000%
Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Canelo Álvarez (Local) ▼ | Christian Mbilli (Visit) | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 1.33I 75.19% NM 71.27%EV -5.21% E -3.91% K -15.77% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 28.73%EV -5.21% E -1.58% K -2.26% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-01 14:48 |
| theScore Bet | 1.33I 75.19% NM 71.27%EV -5.21% E -3.91% K -15.77% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 28.73%EV -5.21% E -1.58% K -2.26% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-03 14:19 |
| BetUS | 1.33I 75.19% NM 70.96%EV -5.21% E -3.91% K -15.77% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 29.04%EV -6.64% E -2.04% K -2.95% G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-25 12:30 |
| FanDuel | 1.31I 76.34% NM 71.58%EV -6.63% E -5.06% K -21.39% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 28.42%EV -5.21% E -1.58% K -2.26% G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-04 14:58 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.30I 76.92% NM 71.11%EV -7.34% E -5.65% K -24.48% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.89%EV -8.08% E -2.52% K -3.67% G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-01 14:48 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.28I 78.13% NM 71.87%EV -8.77% E -6.85% K -31.32% G +0.000% | 3.27I 30.58% NM 28.13%EV -6.07% E -1.86% K -2.67% G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-06-01 14:49 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.27I 78.74% NM 71.90%EV -9.48% E -7.47% K -35.12% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 28.10%EV -6.64% E -2.04% K -2.95% G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-06-02 19:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (7)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.37I 72.99% | 3.51I 28.49% | 33.00I 3.03% | 4.5% | 2026-06-28 19:08 |
| 888sport | 1.40I 71.43% | 3.40I 29.41% | 12.00I 8.33% | 9.2% | 2026-06-28 01:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.33I 75.19% | 3.50I 28.57% | 17.00I 5.88% | 9.6% | 2026-06-05 12:09 |
| Coral | 1.33I 75.19% | 3.50I 28.57% | 17.00I 5.88% | 9.6% | 2026-06-05 12:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.02I 98.04% | 2.36I 42.37% | 2.24I 44.64% | 85.1% | 2026-06-23 23:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.02I 98.04% | 2.36I 42.37% | 2.24I 44.64% | 85.1% | 2026-06-23 23:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.02I 98.04% | 2.36I 42.37% | 2.24I 44.64% | 85.1% | 2026-06-23 23:20 |