The School of Odds
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Callum Peters v Juan Diego Ortiz

Kickoff: 2026-11-06 09:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Callum Peters (Local)

Prediction 87.41%1.14fair odd
EV -9.10%
Edge -8.75%
Kelly -227.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
87.41%87.41%87.41%90.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.031.031.0498.04%97.09%97.09%96.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Juan Diego Ortiz (Visit)

Prediction 8.26%12.10fair odd
EV +23.96%
Edge +1.60%
Kelly +1.71%
Growth +0.410%

assuming max odds 15.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.30%8.26%8.26%8.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.7012.1412.0015.009.35%8.24%8.33%6.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.33%23.10fair odd
EV +47.18%
Edge +1.39%
Kelly +1.43%
Growth +0.674%

assuming max odds 34.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.78%4.33%4.33%4.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
21.0027.4026.0034.004.76%3.65%3.85%2.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Callum Peters (Local): 87.41%; Juan Diego Ortiz (Visit): 8.26%; Draw: 4.33%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 23.10. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 34.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +47.18%.

7 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.92%EV -9.10%E -8.75%K -227.41%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.30%EV +23.96%E +1.60%K +1.71%G +0.410%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.78%EV +47.18%E +1.39%K +1.43%G +0.674%5.8%2026-11-06 07:30
1xBet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 88.55%EV -10.84%E -10.63%K -542.23%G +0.000%10.70I 9.35%NM 8.44%EV -11.58%E -1.08%K -1.19%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.01%EV +29.86%E +0.995%K +1.03%G +0.308%10.7%2026-11-06 07:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 88.85%EV -9.97%E -9.68%K -332.35%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.63%EV -0.832%E -0.069%K -0.076%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.52%EV +12.55%E +0.483%K +0.502%G +0.063%9.3%2026-11-06 07:30
Paddy Power🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 88.95%EV -10.84%E -10.63%K -542.23%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.56%EV -0.832%E -0.069%K -0.076%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.49%EV +12.55%E +0.483%K +0.502%G +0.063%10.2%2026-11-06 07:30
Betway🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 87.41%EV -9.10%E -8.75%K -227.41%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.26%EV -9.10%E -0.827%K -0.910%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.33%EV -9.10%E -0.433%K -0.455%G +0.000%10.0%2026-11-06 07:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.05I 95.24%NM 46.85%10.00I 10.00%NM 4.92%1.02I 98.04%NM 48.23%103.3%2026-11-06 09:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.05I 95.24%NM 46.85%10.00I 10.00%NM 4.92%1.02I 98.04%NM 48.23%103.3%2026-11-06 09:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.05I 95.24%NM 32.48%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.76%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.76%193.3%2026-11-06 08:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (7)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
BetUS🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%3.9%2026-11-06 07:29
Bovada🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%4.7%2026-11-06 07:35
Bet Right🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%4.8%2026-11-06 07:30
NordicBet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.49%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.51%5.9%2026-11-06 07:29
Betsson🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.49%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.51%5.9%2026-11-06 07:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%7.1%2026-11-06 07:30
picklebet_au🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.24%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%7.3%2026-11-06 07:30