Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bryant Jennings v Robert Simms

Kickoff: 2026-06-14 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bryant Jennings (Local)

Prediction 82.33%1.21fair odd
EV -5.32%
Edge -4.62%
Kelly -35.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.60%82.48%82.16%83.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.141.141.1588.50%87.63%87.72%86.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Robert Simms (Visit)

Prediction 17.67%5.66fair odd
EV +4.06%
Edge +0.690%
Kelly +0.831%
Growth +0.034%

assuming max odds 5.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.22%17.52%17.84%18.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.105.425.505.8919.61%18.45%18.18%16.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bryant Jennings (Local): 82.33%; Robert Simms (Visit): 17.67%. For Robert Simms (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.66. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.89, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.06%.

5 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.78%EV -6.14%E -5.39%K -43.86%G +0.000%5.89I 16.98%NM 16.22%EV +4.06%E +0.690%K +0.831%G +0.034%4.7%2026-06-14 13:40
BetUS🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.21%EV -6.14%E -5.39%K -43.86%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.79%EV -0.178%E -0.032%K -0.038%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-14 13:40
Bet Right🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.32%E -4.62%K -35.45%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -2.83%E -0.514%K -0.629%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-14 13:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.14%E -5.39%K -43.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -2.83%E -0.514%K -0.629%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-14 13:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.14%E -5.39%K -43.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -2.83%E -0.514%K -0.629%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-14 13:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -6.14%E -5.39%K -43.86%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -7.25%E -1.38%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-14 13:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -6.14%E -5.39%K -43.86%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -7.25%E -1.38%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-14 13:40
Betsson🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.01%EV -6.96%E -6.16%K -53.57%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 17.99%EV -9.01%E -1.75%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-14 13:40
FanDuel🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.60%EV -5.32%E -4.62%K -35.45%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.40%EV -9.90%E -1.94%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-14 13:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (5)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
SportsBet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.09%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.06%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.85%8.5%2026-06-14 13:40
Coral🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.03%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.60%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%9.5%2026-06-14 13:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.03%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.60%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%9.5%2026-06-14 13:40
Paddy Power🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.37%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.53%10.5%2026-06-14 13:38
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.37%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.53%10.5%2026-06-14 13:40