Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bryan Acosta v Ronny Rios

Kickoff: 2026-03-29 01:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bryan Acosta (Local)

Prediction 63.25%1.58fair odd
EV -5.12%
Edge -3.42%
Kelly -10.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.78%63.22%63.41%63.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.491.501.5068.03%67.06%66.67%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ronny Rios (Visit)

Prediction 36.75%2.72fair odd
EV -2.61%
Edge -0.987%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.14%36.78%36.59%37.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.572.562.6540.00%38.93%39.06%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bryan Acosta (Local): 63.25%; Ronny Rios (Visit): 36.75%. For Ronny Rios (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.72. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.65, with an expected value of -2.61%; they did not produce positive expected value.

7 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -5.12%E -3.42%K -10.25%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -2.61%E -0.987%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-24 17:50
Bet Right🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.12%E -3.42%K -10.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.45%E -1.71%K -2.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-27 00:20
theScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.12%E -3.42%K -10.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.45%E -1.71%K -2.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-26 22:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.78%EV -5.12%E -3.42%K -10.25%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.22%EV -7.02%E -2.78%K -4.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-25 08:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.78%EV -5.12%E -3.42%K -10.25%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.22%EV -7.02%E -2.78%K -4.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-25 08:25
DraftKings🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -5.76%E -3.86%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -4.45%E -1.71%K -2.78%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-27 00:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -6.39%E -4.32%K -13.31%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -6.29%E -2.47%K -4.06%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-27 00:24
Unibet (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.39%E -4.32%K -13.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-27 00:14
FanDuel🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.52%EV -7.02%E -4.78%K -14.94%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.48%EV -5.92%E -2.31%K -3.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-23 17:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (7)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
SportsBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.36%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.21%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.43%8.3%2026-03-22 11:04
1xBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.42%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.24%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.35%10.0%2026-03-25 17:20
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.31%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.64%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.05%10.2%2026-03-24 15:15
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.71%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.04%10.4%2026-03-24 12:23
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.71%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.04%10.4%2026-03-24 12:25
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.21%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.47%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.31%10.7%2026-03-22 11:03
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.79%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.98%11.5%2026-03-25 11:39